xgEdge

Expected goals

Dundalk FC expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier Division (Ireland) · after 32 matches · updated 4 Oct

Dundalk FC's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier Division (Ireland) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Dundalk FC xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.57 xG per match
#3/10
Attack (xG per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.78
#2 Bohemian FC 1.64
#3 Dundalk FC 1.57
#4 Shamrock Rovers 1.41
#5 Shelbourne 1.40
#6 Waterford FC 1.40
#7 Galway United 1.35
#8 Derry City 1.18
#9 Drogheda United 1.16
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.03
League avg
1.39
Total
50.27 32 matches
Defence
1.58 xGA per match
#7/10
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.93
#2 Bohemian FC 1.10
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.14
#4 Derry City 1.18
#5 Shelbourne 1.20
#6 Galway United 1.51
#7 Dundalk FC 1.58
#8 Drogheda United 1.60
#9 Waterford FC 1.77
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.88
League avg
1.39
Total
50.62 32 matches
xG difference
-0.01 xGD per match
#6/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic +0.85
#2 Bohemian FC +0.54
#3 Shamrock Rovers +0.27
#4 Shelbourne +0.20
#5 Derry City +0.01
#6 Dundalk FC -0.01
#7 Galway United -0.16
#8 Waterford FC -0.38
#9 Drogheda United -0.44
#10 Sligo Rovers -0.85
League avg
0.00
Total
-0.35 32 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.35 xPts per match
#6/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.87
#2 Bohemian FC 1.75
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.58
#4 Shelbourne 1.48
#5 Derry City 1.37
#6 Dundalk FC 1.35
#7 Galway United 1.28
#8 Waterford FC 1.17
#9 Drogheda United 1.10
#10 Sligo Rovers 0.87
League avg
1.38
Total
43.22 vs 41 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 32 of 33 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Dundalk FC's underlying numbers sit close to the Premier Division (Ireland) average. They rank #6 for xG difference at -0.01 per match, driven by elite shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 49 goals are 1.27 below 50.27 xG, while 41 points are 2.22 below 43.22 xPts — both over the 32 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
49 50.27 -1.27 scored 1.27 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
52 50.62 +1.38 conceded 1.38 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
41 43.22 -2.22 2.22 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Dundalk FC are 1.27 goals below their xG after 32 matches. The gap was widest at -2.08, against Drogheda United on Fri 28/08.

Goals
49
xG
50.27
Gap
-1.27
Fri 13/02 Fri 20/02 Mon 23/02 Fri 27/02 Fri 06/03 Fri 13/03 Mon 16/03 Fri 20/03 Fri 03/04 Mon 06/04 Fri 10/04 Fri 17/04 Sat 25/04 Fri 01/05 Mon 04/05 Fri 15/05 Fri 22/05 Fri 29/05 Fri 12/06 Fri 19/06 Fri 26/06 Fri 03/07 Fri 10/07 Fri 24/07 Fri 31/07 Fri 07/08 Fri 21/08 Fri 28/08 Fri 11/09 Mon 14/09 Fri 18/09 Fri 02/10 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +1.47 +1.45 +1.21 -0.05 +1.04 +2.83 +2.52 +1.92 +3.54 +4.46 +4.04 +2.55 +0.42 -0.56 -1.73 -1.18 -1.14 -0.90 -1.30 -0.08 +0.45 +0.50 +0.06 -0.37 -1.11 -0.83 -2.04 -2.08 -1.63 -1.89 -1.07 -1.27 +1.47 -0.02 -0.24 -1.26 +1.09 +1.79 -0.31 -0.60 +1.62 +0.92 -0.42 -1.49 -2.13 -0.98 -1.17 +0.55 +0.04 +0.24 -0.40 +1.22 +0.53 +0.05 -0.44 -0.43 -0.74 +0.28 -1.21 -0.04 +0.45 -0.26 +0.82 -0.20 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Dundalk FC: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 13/02 Derry City 2 0.53 +1.47 +1.47
Fri 20/02 Drogheda United 1 1.02 -0.02 +1.45
Mon 23/02 Shamrock Rovers 1 1.24 -0.24 +1.21
Fri 27/02 St. Patrick's Athletic 0 1.26 -1.26 -0.05
Fri 06/03 Galway United 2 0.91 +1.09 +1.04
Fri 13/03 Waterford FC 5 3.21 +1.79 +2.83
Mon 16/03 Sligo Rovers 1 1.31 -0.31 +2.52
Fri 20/03 Bohemian FC 1 1.60 -0.60 +1.92
Fri 03/04 Shelbourne 3 1.38 +1.62 +3.54
Mon 06/04 St. Patrick's Athletic 2 1.08 +0.92 +4.46
Fri 10/04 Derry City 2 2.42 -0.42 +4.04
Fri 17/04 Galway United 2 3.49 -1.49 +2.55
Sat 25/04 Sligo Rovers 0 2.13 -2.13 +0.42
Fri 01/05 Shelbourne 1 1.98 -0.98 -0.56
Mon 04/05 Waterford FC 3 4.17 -1.17 -1.73
Fri 15/05 Shamrock Rovers 1 0.45 +0.55 -1.18
Fri 22/05 Drogheda United 1 0.96 +0.04 -1.14
Fri 29/05 Derry City 2 1.76 +0.24 -0.90
Fri 12/06 Galway United 1 1.40 -0.40 -1.30
Fri 19/06 Bohemian FC 2 0.78 +1.22 -0.08
Fri 26/06 Waterford FC 2 1.47 +0.53 +0.45
Fri 03/07 Shelbourne 1 0.95 +0.05 +0.50
Fri 10/07 Drogheda United 1 1.44 -0.44 +0.06
Fri 24/07 St. Patrick's Athletic 1 1.43 -0.43 -0.37
Fri 31/07 Sligo Rovers 1 1.74 -0.74 -1.11
Fri 07/08 Shamrock Rovers 2 1.72 +0.28 -0.83
Fri 21/08 Galway United 1 2.21 -1.21 -2.04
Fri 28/08 Drogheda United 3 3.04 -0.04 -2.08
Fri 11/09 Waterford FC 1 0.55 +0.45 -1.63
Mon 14/09 St. Patrick's Athletic 0 0.26 -0.26 -1.89
Fri 18/09 Shelbourne 2 1.18 +0.82 -1.07
Fri 02/10 Bohemian FC 1 1.20 -0.20 -1.27

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Dundalk FC xG trend

Current form -0.55 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 15 of 32 matches. The worst was against St. Patrick's Athletic on Mon 14/09 (-2.68).

npxG · last 6
1.41
npxGA · last 6
1.96
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -1.51 Fri 13/02 -0.34 Fri 20/02 -0.44 Mon 23/02 -1.55 Fri 27/02 -0.39 Fri 06/03 +2.58 Fri 13/03 +0.73 Mon 16/03 +0.80 Fri 20/03 -0.62 Fri 03/04 +0.05 Mon 06/04 +1.22 Fri 10/04 +2.67 Fri 17/04 -0.72 Sat 25/04 +0.75 Fri 01/05 +1.81 Mon 04/05 -0.65 Fri 15/05 +0.19 Fri 22/05 +0.89 Fri 29/05 +0.30 Fri 12/06 -0.22 Fri 19/06 -0.68 Fri 26/06 -0.98 Fri 03/07 +0.19 Fri 10/07 -0.55 Fri 24/07 +0.39 Fri 31/07 -0.94 Fri 07/08 +1.42 Fri 21/08 +1.15 Fri 28/08 -1.49 Fri 11/09 -2.68 Mon 14/09 -1.00 Fri 18/09 -0.73 Fri 02/10 -0.01 season avg
Dundalk FC: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 13/02 Derry City 0.53 2.04 -1.51 -1.51
Fri 20/02 Drogheda United 1.02 1.36 -0.34 -0.93
Mon 23/02 Shamrock Rovers 1.24 1.68 -0.44 -0.76
Fri 27/02 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.26 2.81 -1.55 -0.96
Fri 06/03 Galway United 0.91 1.30 -0.39 -0.85
Fri 13/03 Waterford FC 3.21 0.63 +2.58 -0.28
Mon 16/03 Sligo Rovers 1.31 0.58 +0.73 -0.13
Fri 20/03 Bohemian FC 1.60 0.80 +0.80 -0.02
Fri 03/04 Shelbourne 1.38 2.00 -0.62 -0.08
Mon 06/04 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.08 1.03 +0.05 -0.07
Fri 10/04 Derry City 2.42 1.20 +1.22 +0.05
Fri 17/04 Galway United 3.49 0.82 +2.67 +0.27
Sat 25/04 Sligo Rovers 2.13 2.85 -0.72 +0.19
Fri 01/05 Shelbourne 1.98 1.23 +0.75 +0.23
Mon 04/05 Waterford FC 4.17 2.36 +1.81 +0.34
Fri 15/05 Shamrock Rovers 0.45 1.10 -0.65 +0.27
Fri 22/05 Drogheda United 0.96 0.77 +0.19 +0.27
Fri 29/05 Derry City 1.76 0.87 +0.89 +0.30
Fri 12/06 Galway United 1.40 1.10 +0.30 +0.30
Fri 19/06 Bohemian FC 0.78 1.00 -0.22 +0.28
Fri 26/06 Waterford FC 1.47 2.15 -0.68 +0.23
Fri 03/07 Shelbourne 0.95 1.93 -0.98 +0.18
Fri 10/07 Drogheda United 1.44 1.25 +0.19 +0.18
Fri 24/07 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.43 1.98 -0.55 +0.15
Fri 31/07 Sligo Rovers 1.74 1.35 +0.39 +0.16
Fri 07/08 Shamrock Rovers 1.72 2.66 -0.94 +0.11
Fri 21/08 Galway United 2.21 0.79 +1.42 +0.16
Fri 28/08 Drogheda United 3.04 1.89 +1.15 +0.20
Fri 11/09 Waterford FC 0.55 2.04 -1.49 +0.14
Mon 14/09 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.26 2.94 -2.68 +0.05
Fri 18/09 Shelbourne 1.18 2.18 -1.00 +0.01
Fri 02/10 Bohemian FC 1.20 1.93 -0.73 -0.01

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.57 npxG and 1.58 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 4 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 33 league matches
Last 5
tied number 1 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
+0.16 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 33 matches · number 4 hardest of 10

  1. Bohemian FC Home +0.45
  2. Shelbourne Home +0.06
  3. St. Patrick's Athletic Home +0.56
  4. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  5. Drogheda United Away −0.36
  6. Galway United Home −0.33
  7. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  8. Sligo Rovers Home −0.76
  9. St. Patrick's Athletic Away +0.56
  10. Drogheda United Home −0.36
  11. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  12. Waterford FC Home +0.09
  13. Bohemian FC Away +0.45
  14. Galway United Away −0.33
  15. Derry City Home +0.14
  16. Drogheda United Away −0.36
  17. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  18. Bohemian FC Home +0.45
  19. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  20. Shelbourne Home +0.06
  21. Sligo Rovers Away −0.76
  22. Galway United Home −0.33
  23. Derry City Home +0.14
  24. St. Patrick's Athletic Home +0.56
  25. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  26. Bohemian FC Away +0.45
  27. Sligo Rovers Home −0.76
  28. Waterford FC Home +0.09
  29. Galway United Away −0.33
  30. St. Patrick's Athletic Away +0.56
  31. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  32. Drogheda United Home −0.36
  33. Derry City Away +0.14

Last 5

+0.16 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 1 hardest of 10

  1. Bohemian FC Home +0.45
  2. Shelbourne Home +0.06
  3. St. Patrick's Athletic Home +0.56
  4. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  5. Drogheda United Away −0.36

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Dundalk FC shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. Dundalk FC take 16.1 shots a match (league 13.8) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #3 in Premier Division (Ireland) for volume and #9 for quality. 58% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.1 shots per match
#3/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 17.3
#2 Bohemian FC 16.5
#3 Dundalk FC 16.1
#4 Shelbourne 14.1
#5 Shamrock Rovers 13.8
#6 Derry City 13.7
#7 Waterford FC 13.4
#8 Galway United 12.2
#9 Drogheda United 10.9
#10 Sligo Rovers 9.7
League avg
13.8
Total
516 shots from 32 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#9/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Galway United 0.11
#2 Sligo Rovers 0.11
#3 Drogheda United 0.11
#4 Waterford FC 0.10
#5 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Bohemian FC 0.10
#8 Shelbourne 0.10
#9 Dundalk FC 0.10
#10 Derry City 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
50.27 npxG from 516 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.9 shots per match
#6/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bohemian FC 10.0
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic 10.3
#3 Shamrock Rovers 11.0
#4 Derry City 11.2
#5 Shelbourne 12.2
#6 Dundalk FC 13.9
#7 Drogheda United 15.4
#8 Galway United 16.4
#9 Waterford FC 17.6
#10 Sligo Rovers 19.3
League avg
13.8
Total
444 shots allowed from 32 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#10/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.09
#2 Galway United 0.09
#3 Sligo Rovers 0.10
#4 Shelbourne 0.10
#5 Waterford FC 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Drogheda United 0.10
#8 Derry City 0.11
#9 Bohemian FC 0.11
#10 Dundalk FC 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
50.62 npxGA from 444 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

58% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 299 of 516 shots over 32 matches

Shots allowed, location

69% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 306 of 445 shots allowed over 32 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Dundalk FC home and away xG

Dundalk FC per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 16 with xG 16
xG / match 1.64 1.50
xGA / match 1.34 1.83
xGD / match +0.30 -0.32
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.57 1.14

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Dundalk FC match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.25
xGA / match
2.20
xGD / match
-0.95
Points
4 of 15
  1. Fri 02/10 Bohemian FC H xG 1.20 xGA 1.93 xGD -0.73
  2. Fri 18/09 Shelbourne H xG 1.18 xGA 2.18 xGD -1.00
  3. Mon 14/09 St. Patrick's Athletic H Weakest underlying xG 0.26 xGA 2.94 xGD -2.68
  4. Fri 11/09 Waterford FC A xG 0.55 xGA 2.04 xGD -1.49
  5. Fri 28/08 Drogheda United A Best underlying xG 3.04 xGA 1.89 xGD +1.15

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.04. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Dundalk FC in Premier Division (Ireland)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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