Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Arsenal – Crystal Palace
Model updated 4 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Arsenal
- 57%
- Draw
- 28%
- Crystal Palace
- 15%
| Arsenal | Draw | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.77 | 3.52 | 6.64 |
- Total goals
- 2.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Arsenal
57% Arsenal to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 14th
- Arsenal attack v Crystal Palace defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 18th
- Arsenal defence v Crystal Palace attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 0.79
- Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Squad news
Arsenal
10 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Christos Tzolis 75% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Crystal Palace
12 listed-
Dean Henderson 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Foot injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Jean-Philippe Mateta 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Axel Disasi 0% chance
Defender · Suspended until 25 Oct
-
Rio Cardines 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Bristol City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Justin Devenny 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Matheus França 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Alverca on loan for the rest of the season
-
Chadi Riad Dnanou 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Borna Sosa 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Cologne on loan for the rest of the season
-
Romain Esse 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Millwall on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined Kasimpasa on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Christantus Uche 0% chance
Forward · has returned to Getafe CF
-
Takehiro Tomiyasu 75% chance
Defender · Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Arsenal | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.70 · 6th | 1.25 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.81 · 1st | 1.89 · 20th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.89 · 1st | -0.64 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 0.95 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | -0.79 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Arsenal clean sheet
- 42%
- Arsenal 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 1:0
- 12.2%
- 2:0
- 12.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Arsenal
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Crystal Palace
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.