xgEdge

Expected goals

Crystal Palace expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Crystal Palace's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Crystal Palace xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.25 xG per match
#15/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31
#2 Manchester City 2.10
#3 Brentford 1.96
#4 Manchester United 1.93
#5 Sunderland 1.90
#6 Arsenal 1.70
#7 Liverpool 1.67
#8 Fulham 1.56
#9 Leeds United 1.56
#10 Ipswich Town 1.53
#11 Chelsea 1.47
#12 Everton 1.46
#13 Nottingham Forest 1.45
#14 Bournemouth 1.34
#15 Crystal Palace 1.25
#16 Hull City 1.10
#17 Newcastle United 1.07
#18 Tottenham Hotspur 1.00
#19 Coventry City 0.97
#20 Aston Villa 0.91
League avg
1.51
Total
6.27 5 matches
Defence
1.89 xGA per match
#20/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.81
#2 Nottingham Forest 0.95
#3 Liverpool 1.22
#4 Brentford 1.26
#5 Leeds United 1.27
#6 Everton 1.39
#7 Bournemouth 1.39
#8 Manchester United 1.40
#9 Manchester City 1.45
#10 Hull City 1.48
#11 Tottenham Hotspur 1.56
#12 Coventry City 1.73
#13 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74
#14 Sunderland 1.75
#15 Ipswich Town 1.75
#16 Fulham 1.77
#17 Chelsea 1.78
#18 Newcastle United 1.83
#19 Aston Villa 1.84
#20 Crystal Palace 1.89
League avg
1.51
Total
9.45 5 matches
xG difference
-0.64 xGD per match
#17/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.89
#2 Brentford +0.70
#3 Manchester City +0.65
#4 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.57
#5 Manchester United +0.53
#6 Nottingham Forest +0.50
#7 Liverpool +0.45
#8 Leeds United +0.29
#9 Sunderland +0.15
#10 Everton +0.08
#11 Bournemouth -0.05
#12 Fulham -0.21
#13 Ipswich Town -0.22
#14 Chelsea -0.31
#15 Hull City -0.37
#16 Tottenham Hotspur -0.56
#17 Crystal Palace -0.64
#18 Coventry City -0.75
#19 Newcastle United -0.76
#20 Aston Villa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
-3.18 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.95 xPts per match
#17/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.07
#2 Manchester City 1.87
#3 Nottingham Forest 1.72
#4 Liverpool 1.69
#5 Brentford 1.66
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62
#7 Manchester United 1.60
#8 Leeds United 1.55
#9 Sunderland 1.47
#10 Everton 1.45
#11 Ipswich Town 1.41
#12 Bournemouth 1.39
#13 Tottenham Hotspur 1.17
#14 Fulham 1.17
#15 Chelsea 1.16
#16 Hull City 1.09
#17 Crystal Palace 0.95
#18 Aston Villa 0.90
#19 Coventry City 0.87
#20 Newcastle United 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
4.76 vs 4 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Crystal Palace's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Premier League. They rank #17 for xG difference at -0.64 per match, built on high chance quality rather than low shot volume. Their 6 goals are 0.27 below 6.27 xG, while 4 points are 0.76 below 4.76 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 6.27 -0.27 scored 0.27 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 9.45 +1.55 conceded 1.55 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
4 4.76 -0.76 0.76 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Crystal Palace are 0.27 goals below their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at -1.96, against Everton on Sat 22/08.

Goals
6
xG
6.27
Gap
-0.27
Sat 22/08 Fri 28/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.96 -1.62 -0.59 +0.79 -0.27 -1.96 +0.34 +1.03 +1.38 -1.06 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Crystal Palace: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 Everton 0 1.96 -1.96 -1.96
Fri 28/08 Manchester City 1 0.66 +0.34 -1.62
Sat 05/09 Fulham 3 1.97 +1.03 -0.59
Sat 12/09 Ipswich Town 2 0.62 +1.38 +0.79
Sun 20/09 Leeds United 0 1.06 -1.06 -0.27

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Crystal Palace xG trend

Current form -0.51 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 5 matches. The worst was against Fulham on Sat 05/09 (-1.18).

npxG · last 5
1.25
npxGA · last 5
1.76
-2 -1 0 +1 +0.88 Sat 22/08 -0.58 Fri 28/08 -1.18 Sat 05/09 -1.07 Sat 12/09 -0.60 Sun 20/09 -0.51 season avg
Crystal Palace: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 Everton 2.04 1.16 +0.88 +0.88
Fri 28/08 Manchester City 0.87 1.45 -0.58 +0.15
Sat 05/09 Fulham 1.97 3.15 -1.18 -0.29
Sat 12/09 Ipswich Town 0.62 1.69 -1.07 -0.49
Sun 20/09 Leeds United 0.76 1.36 -0.60 -0.51

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.25 npxG and 1.76 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 8 hardest of 20 in Premier League
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 8 hardest of 20

  1. Leeds United Away −0.11
  2. Ipswich Town Home −0.14
  3. Fulham Away −0.02
  4. Manchester City Home +0.34
  5. Everton Away −0.05

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Crystal Palace shots and chance quality

Low volume, high quality. Crystal Palace take 10.6 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #17 in Premier League for volume and #6 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 12% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.6 shots per match
#17/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Manchester United 22.6
#2 Brighton & Hove Albion 19.0
#3 Nottingham Forest 16.4
#4 Brentford 16.2
#5 Everton 16.0
#6 Liverpool 15.2
=7 Chelsea 14.4
=7 Fulham 14.4
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 14.2
=10 Bournemouth 13.6
=10 Manchester City 13.6
#12 Sunderland 13.2
#13 Arsenal 13.0
=14 Hull City 12.2
=14 Leeds United 12.2
#16 Ipswich Town 11.6
#17 Crystal Palace 10.6
=18 Coventry City 10.2
=18 Newcastle United 10.2
#20 Aston Villa 9.6
League avg
13.9
Total
53 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#6/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Manchester City 0.14
#2 Sunderland 0.13
#3 Leeds United 0.13
#4 Ipswich Town 0.13
#5 Arsenal 0.12
#6 Crystal Palace 0.12
#7 Brentford 0.12
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#9 Fulham 0.11
#10 Bournemouth 0.11
#11 Coventry City 0.10
#12 Chelsea 0.10
#13 Everton 0.09
#14 Aston Villa 0.09
#15 Liverpool 0.09
#16 Hull City 0.09
#17 Newcastle United 0.08
#18 Manchester United 0.08
#19 Nottingham Forest 0.07
#20 Tottenham Hotspur 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
6.26 npxG from 53 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.8 shots per match
#17/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nottingham Forest 10.4
=2 Arsenal 10.6
=2 Manchester United 10.6
#4 Bournemouth 10.8
=5 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.6
=5 Liverpool 11.6
#7 Manchester City 11.8
#8 Sunderland 12.0
#9 Brentford 13.4
=10 Everton 13.8
=10 Hull City 13.8
#12 Chelsea 14.4
#13 Leeds United 14.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 15.2
#15 Aston Villa 16.2
#16 Fulham 16.6
#17 Crystal Palace 16.8
#18 Ipswich Town 17.2
#19 Coventry City 17.4
#20 Newcastle United 19.6
League avg
13.9
Total
84 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#13/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.06
#2 Leeds United 0.08
#3 Newcastle United 0.08
#4 Coventry City 0.08
#5 Liverpool 0.09
#6 Brentford 0.09
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 0.09
#8 Hull City 0.09
#9 Fulham 0.10
#10 Everton 0.10
#11 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#12 Ipswich Town 0.10
#13 Crystal Palace 0.10
#14 Aston Villa 0.11
#15 Bournemouth 0.13
#16 Sunderland 0.13
#17 Manchester United 0.13
#18 Chelsea 0.13
#19 Manchester City 0.14
#20 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.16
League avg
0.10
Total
8.81 npxGA from 84 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 34 of 53 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

75% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 63 of 84 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

88% open play · 12% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 0.7 of 6.0 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 2.0 of 8.9 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Crystal Palace home and away xG

Crystal Palace per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 3
xG / match 0.64 1.66
xGA / match 1.94 1.86
xGD / match -1.30 -0.19
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.45 1.29

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Crystal Palace match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.25
xGA / match
1.89
xGD / match
-0.64
Points
4 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 Leeds United A xG 1.06 xGA 1.31 xGD -0.25
  2. Sat 12/09 Ipswich Town H xG 0.62 xGA 1.67 xGD -1.05
  3. Sat 05/09 Fulham A Against the chances xG 1.97 xGA 3.14 xGD -1.17
  4. Fri 28/08 Manchester City H Weakest underlying xG 0.66 xGA 2.21 P xGD -1.55
  5. Sat 22/08 Everton A Best underlying xG 1.96 xGA 1.12 xGD +0.84

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.14. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Crystal Palace in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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