Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Aston Villa – Brighton & Hove Albion
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aston Villa
- 30%
- Draw
- 28%
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- 42%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.29 | 3.56 | 2.41 |
- Total goals
- 3.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Brighton & Hove Albion
42% Brighton & Hove Albion to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 18th
- Brighton & Hove Albion attack v Aston Villa defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 15th
- Brighton & Hove Albion defence v Aston Villa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.33 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.40 – 1.64
- Aston Villa v Brighton & Hove Albion
Squad news
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Brighton & Hove Albion
15 listed-
Jack Hinshelwood 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Mats Wieffer 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Femi Azeez 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Yankuba Minteh 0% chance
Midfielder · Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov
-
Stefanos Tzimas 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Evan Ferguson 0% chance
Forward · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Facundo Buonanotte 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Elche on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mitoma Kaoru 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Igor Julio 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley permanently
-
Harry Howell 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tom Watson 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Zadok Yohanna 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Amario Cozier-Duberry 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Middlesbrough on loan for the rest of the season
-
Lewis Dunk 75% chance
Defender · Neck injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Pascal Struijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aston Villa | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 20th | (better) 2.31 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 19th | (better) 1.74 · 13th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 20th | (better) +0.57 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.90 · 18th | (better) 1.62 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +0.33 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Brighton & Hove Albion clean sheet
- 22%
- Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Brighton & Hove Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aston Villa
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Brighton & Hove Albion
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.