Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Ipswich Town – Aston Villa
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Ipswich Town
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- Aston Villa
- 26%
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.19 | 3.54 | 3.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Ipswich Town
46% Ipswich Town to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 18th
- Ipswich Town attack v Aston Villa defence
- Defence
- 19th vs 15th
- Ipswich Town defence v Aston Villa attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.22 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.67 – 1.26
- Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Ipswich Town
10 listed-
Abdul Fatawu 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
George Hirst 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Ben Johnson 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Stoke City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jack Taylor 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Chiedozie Ogbene 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Lincoln City on loan until January
-
Ali Al Hamadi 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Sheffield Wednesday on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wes Burns 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City permanently
-
Cameron Humphreys 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Huddersfield Town on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sam Szmodics 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Derby County on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kayne van Oevelen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Ipswich Town | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.53 · 10th | 0.91 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.75 · 15th | 1.84 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.22 · 13th | -0.94 · 20th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.41 · 11th | 0.90 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.22 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Ipswich Town clean sheet
- 25%
- Ipswich Town 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ipswich Town sample
- 5 matches
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Ipswich Town
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Aston Villa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.