Expected goals
Manchester City expected goals (xG) 2026/2027
Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct
Manchester City's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.
Manchester City xG and xGA per match
Every match ↓| Rank | Club | xG per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2.31 |
| #2 | Manchester City | 2.10 |
| #3 | Brentford | 1.96 |
| #4 | Manchester United | 1.93 |
| #5 | Sunderland | 1.90 |
| #6 | Arsenal | 1.70 |
| #7 | Liverpool | 1.67 |
| #8 | Fulham | 1.56 |
| #9 | Leeds United | 1.56 |
| #10 | Ipswich Town | 1.53 |
| #11 | Chelsea | 1.47 |
| #12 | Everton | 1.46 |
| #13 | Nottingham Forest | 1.45 |
| #14 | Bournemouth | 1.34 |
| #15 | Crystal Palace | 1.25 |
| #16 | Hull City | 1.10 |
| #17 | Newcastle United | 1.07 |
| #18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1.00 |
| #19 | Coventry City | 0.97 |
| #20 | Aston Villa | 0.91 |
- League avg
- 1.51
- Total
- 10.50 5 matches
| Rank | Club | xGA per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | 0.81 |
| #2 | Nottingham Forest | 0.95 |
| #3 | Liverpool | 1.22 |
| #4 | Brentford | 1.26 |
| #5 | Leeds United | 1.27 |
| #6 | Everton | 1.39 |
| #7 | Bournemouth | 1.39 |
| #8 | Manchester United | 1.40 |
| #9 | Manchester City | 1.45 |
| #10 | Hull City | 1.48 |
| #11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1.56 |
| #12 | Coventry City | 1.73 |
| #13 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1.74 |
| #14 | Sunderland | 1.75 |
| #15 | Ipswich Town | 1.75 |
| #16 | Fulham | 1.77 |
| #17 | Chelsea | 1.78 |
| #18 | Newcastle United | 1.83 |
| #19 | Aston Villa | 1.84 |
| #20 | Crystal Palace | 1.89 |
- League avg
- 1.51
- Total
- 7.25 5 matches
| Rank | Club | xGD per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | +0.89 |
| #2 | Brentford | +0.70 |
| #3 | Manchester City | +0.65 |
| #4 | Brighton & Hove Albion | +0.57 |
| #5 | Manchester United | +0.53 |
| #6 | Nottingham Forest | +0.50 |
| #7 | Liverpool | +0.45 |
| #8 | Leeds United | +0.29 |
| #9 | Sunderland | +0.15 |
| #10 | Everton | +0.08 |
| #11 | Bournemouth | -0.05 |
| #12 | Fulham | -0.21 |
| #13 | Ipswich Town | -0.22 |
| #14 | Chelsea | -0.31 |
| #15 | Hull City | -0.37 |
| #16 | Tottenham Hotspur | -0.56 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | -0.64 |
| #18 | Coventry City | -0.75 |
| #19 | Newcastle United | -0.76 |
| #20 | Aston Villa | -0.94 |
- League avg
- 0.00
- Total
- +3.25 5 matches
| Rank | Club | xPts per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | 2.07 |
| #2 | Manchester City | 1.87 |
| #3 | Nottingham Forest | 1.72 |
| #4 | Liverpool | 1.69 |
| #5 | Brentford | 1.66 |
| #6 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1.62 |
| #7 | Manchester United | 1.60 |
| #8 | Leeds United | 1.55 |
| #9 | Sunderland | 1.47 |
| #10 | Everton | 1.45 |
| #11 | Ipswich Town | 1.41 |
| #12 | Bournemouth | 1.39 |
| #13 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1.17 |
| #14 | Fulham | 1.17 |
| #15 | Chelsea | 1.16 |
| #16 | Hull City | 1.09 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | 0.95 |
| #18 | Aston Villa | 0.90 |
| #19 | Coventry City | 0.87 |
| #20 | Newcastle United | 0.82 |
- League avg
- 1.38
- Total
- 9.34 vs 15 actual pts
Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.
What the xG says
Manchester City's underlying numbers are among the best in Premier League. They rank #3 for xG difference at +0.65 per match, built on the league's best chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 13 goals are 2.50 above 10.50 xG, while 15 points are 5.66 above 9.34 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.
Actual vs expected
Select a row to chart it across the season.
Goals minus xG, match by match
Manchester City are 2.50 goals above their xG after 5 matches.
- Goals
- 13
- xG
- 10.50
- Gap
- +2.50
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Goals | xG | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23/08 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 |
| Fri 28/08 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 2.21 | +1.79 | +1.54 |
| Sat 05/09 | Coventry City | 1 | 2.12 | -1.12 | +0.42 |
| Sun 13/09 | Manchester United | 1 | 1.10 | -0.10 | +0.32 |
| Sun 20/09 | Sunderland | 5 | 2.82 | +2.18 | +2.50 |
Manchester City xG trend
Current form +0.27 npxGD per match
All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.
Out-created the opponent in 4 of 5 matches. The only negative was against Sunderland on Sun 20/09 (-1.62).
- npxG · last 5
- 1.87
- npxGA · last 5
- 1.60
- npxG
- npxGA
- npxGD
- Avg so far
| Date | Opponent | npxG | npxGA | npxGD | Avg so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23/08 | Bournemouth | 2.36 | 0.63 | +1.73 | +1.73 |
| Fri 28/08 | Crystal Palace | 1.45 | 0.87 | +0.58 | +1.15 |
| Sat 05/09 | Coventry City | 1.82 | 1.21 | +0.61 | +0.97 |
| Sun 13/09 | Manchester United | 0.99 | 0.95 | +0.04 | +0.74 |
| Sun 20/09 | Sunderland | 2.72 | 4.34 | -1.62 | +0.27 |
Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.87 npxG and 1.60 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.
Strength of schedule
- Season so far
- number 7 hardest of 20 in Premier League
- +0.03 xG vs league average
- Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures
Season so far
+0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 20
- Sunderland Home +0.07
- Manchester United Away +0.43
- Coventry City Home −0.22
- Crystal Palace Away −0.22
- Bournemouth Home +0.11
Manchester City shots and chance quality
Average volume, high quality. Manchester City take 13.6 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.14 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =10 in Premier League for volume and #1 for quality. 76% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 25%).
Attack
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Manchester United | 22.6 |
| #2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19.0 |
| #3 | Nottingham Forest | 16.4 |
| #4 | Brentford | 16.2 |
| #5 | Everton | 16.0 |
| #6 | Liverpool | 15.2 |
| =7 | Chelsea | 14.4 |
| =7 | Fulham | 14.4 |
| #9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 14.2 |
| =10 | Bournemouth | 13.6 |
| =10 | Manchester City | 13.6 |
| #12 | Sunderland | 13.2 |
| #13 | Arsenal | 13.0 |
| =14 | Hull City | 12.2 |
| =14 | Leeds United | 12.2 |
| #16 | Ipswich Town | 11.6 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | 10.6 |
| =18 | Coventry City | 10.2 |
| =18 | Newcastle United | 10.2 |
| #20 | Aston Villa | 9.6 |
- League avg
- 13.9
- Total
- 68 shots from 5 matches
| Rank | Club | npxG per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Manchester City | 0.14 |
| #2 | Sunderland | 0.13 |
| #3 | Leeds United | 0.13 |
| #4 | Ipswich Town | 0.13 |
| #5 | Arsenal | 0.12 |
| #6 | Crystal Palace | 0.12 |
| #7 | Brentford | 0.12 |
| #8 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0.11 |
| #9 | Fulham | 0.11 |
| #10 | Bournemouth | 0.11 |
| #11 | Coventry City | 0.10 |
| #12 | Chelsea | 0.10 |
| #13 | Everton | 0.09 |
| #14 | Aston Villa | 0.09 |
| #15 | Liverpool | 0.09 |
| #16 | Hull City | 0.09 |
| #17 | Newcastle United | 0.08 |
| #18 | Manchester United | 0.08 |
| #19 | Nottingham Forest | 0.07 |
| #20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0.07 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 9.34 npxG from 68 shots
Defence
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Nottingham Forest | 10.4 |
| =2 | Arsenal | 10.6 |
| =2 | Manchester United | 10.6 |
| #4 | Bournemouth | 10.8 |
| =5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 11.6 |
| =5 | Liverpool | 11.6 |
| #7 | Manchester City | 11.8 |
| #8 | Sunderland | 12.0 |
| #9 | Brentford | 13.4 |
| =10 | Everton | 13.8 |
| =10 | Hull City | 13.8 |
| #12 | Chelsea | 14.4 |
| #13 | Leeds United | 14.6 |
| #14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 15.2 |
| #15 | Aston Villa | 16.2 |
| #16 | Fulham | 16.6 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | 16.8 |
| #18 | Ipswich Town | 17.2 |
| #19 | Coventry City | 17.4 |
| #20 | Newcastle United | 19.6 |
- League avg
- 13.9
- Total
- 59 shots allowed from 5 matches
| Rank | Club | npxGA per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | 0.06 |
| #2 | Leeds United | 0.08 |
| #3 | Newcastle United | 0.08 |
| #4 | Coventry City | 0.08 |
| #5 | Liverpool | 0.09 |
| #6 | Brentford | 0.09 |
| #7 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0.09 |
| #8 | Hull City | 0.09 |
| #9 | Fulham | 0.10 |
| #10 | Everton | 0.10 |
| #11 | Nottingham Forest | 0.10 |
| #12 | Ipswich Town | 0.10 |
| #13 | Crystal Palace | 0.10 |
| #14 | Aston Villa | 0.11 |
| #15 | Bournemouth | 0.13 |
| #16 | Sunderland | 0.13 |
| #17 | Manchester United | 0.13 |
| #18 | Chelsea | 0.13 |
| #19 | Manchester City | 0.14 |
| #20 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0.16 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 8.00 npxGA from 59 shots
Shot profile
76% inside the box
League avg 64%
From 52 of 68 shots over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
64% allowed inside the box
League avg 64%
From 38 of 59 shots allowed over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
76% open play · 24% set pieces
League avg 25% set pieces
From 2.3 of 9.4 npxG over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
73% open play · 27% set pieces
League avg 25% set pieces
From 2.1 of 7.7 npxG allowed over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
Manchester City home and away xG
| Measure | Home | Away only 2 matches with xG |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| xG / match | 2.40 | 1.66 |
| xGA / match | 1.86 | 0.83 |
| xGD / match | +0.53 | +0.83 |
| xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → | 1.81 | 1.95 |
Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.
Every Manchester City match by xG
At home this season
- Matches
- 3
- xG / match
- 2.40
- xGA / match
- 1.86
- xGD / match
- +0.53
- Points
- 9 of 9
Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.57. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.
Manchester City in Premier League
Attack
- xG / match #2 of 20
- Shots / match =10 of 20
- Chance quality #1 of 20
- Home xG #3 of 20
- Away xG #12 of 20
Defence
- xGA / match #9 of 20
- Shots allowed #7 of 20
- Chance quality allowed #19 of 20
About the data
- xG data
- Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
- Derived metrics
- xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
- Model metrics
- xPts is produced by our probability model.