xgEdge

Expected goals

Manchester City expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Manchester City's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Manchester City xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.10 xG per match
#2/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31
#2 Manchester City 2.10
#3 Brentford 1.96
#4 Manchester United 1.93
#5 Sunderland 1.90
#6 Arsenal 1.70
#7 Liverpool 1.67
#8 Fulham 1.56
#9 Leeds United 1.56
#10 Ipswich Town 1.53
#11 Chelsea 1.47
#12 Everton 1.46
#13 Nottingham Forest 1.45
#14 Bournemouth 1.34
#15 Crystal Palace 1.25
#16 Hull City 1.10
#17 Newcastle United 1.07
#18 Tottenham Hotspur 1.00
#19 Coventry City 0.97
#20 Aston Villa 0.91
League avg
1.51
Total
10.50 5 matches
Defence
1.45 xGA per match
#9/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.81
#2 Nottingham Forest 0.95
#3 Liverpool 1.22
#4 Brentford 1.26
#5 Leeds United 1.27
#6 Everton 1.39
#7 Bournemouth 1.39
#8 Manchester United 1.40
#9 Manchester City 1.45
#10 Hull City 1.48
#11 Tottenham Hotspur 1.56
#12 Coventry City 1.73
#13 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74
#14 Sunderland 1.75
#15 Ipswich Town 1.75
#16 Fulham 1.77
#17 Chelsea 1.78
#18 Newcastle United 1.83
#19 Aston Villa 1.84
#20 Crystal Palace 1.89
League avg
1.51
Total
7.25 5 matches
xG difference
+0.65 xGD per match
#3/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.89
#2 Brentford +0.70
#3 Manchester City +0.65
#4 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.57
#5 Manchester United +0.53
#6 Nottingham Forest +0.50
#7 Liverpool +0.45
#8 Leeds United +0.29
#9 Sunderland +0.15
#10 Everton +0.08
#11 Bournemouth -0.05
#12 Fulham -0.21
#13 Ipswich Town -0.22
#14 Chelsea -0.31
#15 Hull City -0.37
#16 Tottenham Hotspur -0.56
#17 Crystal Palace -0.64
#18 Coventry City -0.75
#19 Newcastle United -0.76
#20 Aston Villa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
+3.25 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.87 xPts per match
#2/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.07
#2 Manchester City 1.87
#3 Nottingham Forest 1.72
#4 Liverpool 1.69
#5 Brentford 1.66
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62
#7 Manchester United 1.60
#8 Leeds United 1.55
#9 Sunderland 1.47
#10 Everton 1.45
#11 Ipswich Town 1.41
#12 Bournemouth 1.39
#13 Tottenham Hotspur 1.17
#14 Fulham 1.17
#15 Chelsea 1.16
#16 Hull City 1.09
#17 Crystal Palace 0.95
#18 Aston Villa 0.90
#19 Coventry City 0.87
#20 Newcastle United 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
9.34 vs 15 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Manchester City's underlying numbers are among the best in Premier League. They rank #3 for xG difference at +0.65 per match, built on the league's best chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 13 goals are 2.50 above 10.50 xG, while 15 points are 5.66 above 9.34 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.16 xG from penalties
13 10.50 +2.50 scored 2.50 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
5 7.25 -2.25 conceded 2.25 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
15 9.34 +5.66 5.66 points above xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Manchester City are 2.50 goals above their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
13
xG
10.50
Gap
+2.50
Sun 23/08 Fri 28/08 Sat 05/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.25 +1.54 +0.42 +0.32 +2.50 -0.25 +1.79 -1.12 -0.10 +2.18 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Manchester City: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 23/08 Bournemouth 2 2.25 -0.25 -0.25
Fri 28/08 Crystal Palace 4 2.21 +1.79 +1.54
Sat 05/09 Coventry City 1 2.12 -1.12 +0.42
Sun 13/09 Manchester United 1 1.10 -0.10 +0.32
Sun 20/09 Sunderland 5 2.82 +2.18 +2.50

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Manchester City xG trend

Current form +0.27 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 5 matches. The only negative was against Sunderland on Sun 20/09 (-1.62).

npxG · last 5
1.87
npxGA · last 5
1.60
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.73 Sun 23/08 +0.58 Fri 28/08 +0.61 Sat 05/09 +0.04 Sun 13/09 -1.62 Sun 20/09 +0.27 season avg
Manchester City: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 23/08 Bournemouth 2.36 0.63 +1.73 +1.73
Fri 28/08 Crystal Palace 1.45 0.87 +0.58 +1.15
Sat 05/09 Coventry City 1.82 1.21 +0.61 +0.97
Sun 13/09 Manchester United 0.99 0.95 +0.04 +0.74
Sun 20/09 Sunderland 2.72 4.34 -1.62 +0.27

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.87 npxG and 1.60 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 7 hardest of 20 in Premier League
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 20

  1. Sunderland Home +0.07
  2. Manchester United Away +0.43
  3. Coventry City Home −0.22
  4. Crystal Palace Away −0.22
  5. Bournemouth Home +0.11

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Manchester City shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. Manchester City take 13.6 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.14 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =10 in Premier League for volume and #1 for quality. 76% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.6 shots per match
=10/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Manchester United 22.6
#2 Brighton & Hove Albion 19.0
#3 Nottingham Forest 16.4
#4 Brentford 16.2
#5 Everton 16.0
#6 Liverpool 15.2
=7 Chelsea 14.4
=7 Fulham 14.4
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 14.2
=10 Bournemouth 13.6
=10 Manchester City 13.6
#12 Sunderland 13.2
#13 Arsenal 13.0
=14 Hull City 12.2
=14 Leeds United 12.2
#16 Ipswich Town 11.6
#17 Crystal Palace 10.6
=18 Coventry City 10.2
=18 Newcastle United 10.2
#20 Aston Villa 9.6
League avg
13.9
Total
68 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.14 npxG per shot
#1/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Manchester City 0.14
#2 Sunderland 0.13
#3 Leeds United 0.13
#4 Ipswich Town 0.13
#5 Arsenal 0.12
#6 Crystal Palace 0.12
#7 Brentford 0.12
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#9 Fulham 0.11
#10 Bournemouth 0.11
#11 Coventry City 0.10
#12 Chelsea 0.10
#13 Everton 0.09
#14 Aston Villa 0.09
#15 Liverpool 0.09
#16 Hull City 0.09
#17 Newcastle United 0.08
#18 Manchester United 0.08
#19 Nottingham Forest 0.07
#20 Tottenham Hotspur 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
9.34 npxG from 68 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.8 shots per match
#7/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nottingham Forest 10.4
=2 Arsenal 10.6
=2 Manchester United 10.6
#4 Bournemouth 10.8
=5 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.6
=5 Liverpool 11.6
#7 Manchester City 11.8
#8 Sunderland 12.0
#9 Brentford 13.4
=10 Everton 13.8
=10 Hull City 13.8
#12 Chelsea 14.4
#13 Leeds United 14.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 15.2
#15 Aston Villa 16.2
#16 Fulham 16.6
#17 Crystal Palace 16.8
#18 Ipswich Town 17.2
#19 Coventry City 17.4
#20 Newcastle United 19.6
League avg
13.9
Total
59 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.14 npxGA per shot
#19/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.06
#2 Leeds United 0.08
#3 Newcastle United 0.08
#4 Coventry City 0.08
#5 Liverpool 0.09
#6 Brentford 0.09
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 0.09
#8 Hull City 0.09
#9 Fulham 0.10
#10 Everton 0.10
#11 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#12 Ipswich Town 0.10
#13 Crystal Palace 0.10
#14 Aston Villa 0.11
#15 Bournemouth 0.13
#16 Sunderland 0.13
#17 Manchester United 0.13
#18 Chelsea 0.13
#19 Manchester City 0.14
#20 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.16
League avg
0.10
Total
8.00 npxGA from 59 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

76% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 52 of 68 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 38 of 59 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 2.3 of 9.4 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

73% open play · 27% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 2.1 of 7.7 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Manchester City home and away xG

Manchester City per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2
xG / match 2.40 1.66
xGA / match 1.86 0.83
xGD / match +0.53 +0.83
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.81 1.95

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Manchester City match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
2
xG / match
1.66
xGA / match
0.83
xGD / match
+0.83
Points
6 of 6
  1. Sun 13/09 Manchester United A xG 1.10 xGA 1.00 xGD +0.10
  2. Fri 28/08 Crystal Palace A xG 2.21 P xGA 0.66 xGD +1.55

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Manchester City in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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