Expected goals
Manchester United expected goals (xG) 2026/2027
Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct
Manchester United's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.
Manchester United xG and xGA per match
Every match ↓| Rank | Club | xG per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2.31 |
| #2 | Manchester City | 2.10 |
| #3 | Brentford | 1.96 |
| #4 | Manchester United | 1.93 |
| #5 | Sunderland | 1.90 |
| #6 | Arsenal | 1.70 |
| #7 | Liverpool | 1.67 |
| #8 | Fulham | 1.56 |
| #9 | Leeds United | 1.56 |
| #10 | Ipswich Town | 1.53 |
| #11 | Chelsea | 1.47 |
| #12 | Everton | 1.46 |
| #13 | Nottingham Forest | 1.45 |
| #14 | Bournemouth | 1.34 |
| #15 | Crystal Palace | 1.25 |
| #16 | Hull City | 1.10 |
| #17 | Newcastle United | 1.07 |
| #18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1.00 |
| #19 | Coventry City | 0.97 |
| #20 | Aston Villa | 0.91 |
- League avg
- 1.51
- Total
- 9.66 5 matches
| Rank | Club | xGA per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | 0.81 |
| #2 | Nottingham Forest | 0.95 |
| #3 | Liverpool | 1.22 |
| #4 | Brentford | 1.26 |
| #5 | Leeds United | 1.27 |
| #6 | Everton | 1.39 |
| #7 | Bournemouth | 1.39 |
| #8 | Manchester United | 1.40 |
| #9 | Manchester City | 1.45 |
| #10 | Hull City | 1.48 |
| #11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1.56 |
| #12 | Coventry City | 1.73 |
| #13 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1.74 |
| #14 | Sunderland | 1.75 |
| #15 | Ipswich Town | 1.75 |
| #16 | Fulham | 1.77 |
| #17 | Chelsea | 1.78 |
| #18 | Newcastle United | 1.83 |
| #19 | Aston Villa | 1.84 |
| #20 | Crystal Palace | 1.89 |
- League avg
- 1.51
- Total
- 7.00 5 matches
| Rank | Club | xGD per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | +0.89 |
| #2 | Brentford | +0.70 |
| #3 | Manchester City | +0.65 |
| #4 | Brighton & Hove Albion | +0.57 |
| #5 | Manchester United | +0.53 |
| #6 | Nottingham Forest | +0.50 |
| #7 | Liverpool | +0.45 |
| #8 | Leeds United | +0.29 |
| #9 | Sunderland | +0.15 |
| #10 | Everton | +0.08 |
| #11 | Bournemouth | -0.05 |
| #12 | Fulham | -0.21 |
| #13 | Ipswich Town | -0.22 |
| #14 | Chelsea | -0.31 |
| #15 | Hull City | -0.37 |
| #16 | Tottenham Hotspur | -0.56 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | -0.64 |
| #18 | Coventry City | -0.75 |
| #19 | Newcastle United | -0.76 |
| #20 | Aston Villa | -0.94 |
- League avg
- 0.00
- Total
- +2.66 5 matches
| Rank | Club | xPts per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | 2.07 |
| #2 | Manchester City | 1.87 |
| #3 | Nottingham Forest | 1.72 |
| #4 | Liverpool | 1.69 |
| #5 | Brentford | 1.66 |
| #6 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1.62 |
| #7 | Manchester United | 1.60 |
| #8 | Leeds United | 1.55 |
| #9 | Sunderland | 1.47 |
| #10 | Everton | 1.45 |
| #11 | Ipswich Town | 1.41 |
| #12 | Bournemouth | 1.39 |
| #13 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1.17 |
| #14 | Fulham | 1.17 |
| #15 | Chelsea | 1.16 |
| #16 | Hull City | 1.09 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | 0.95 |
| #18 | Aston Villa | 0.90 |
| #19 | Coventry City | 0.87 |
| #20 | Newcastle United | 0.82 |
- League avg
- 1.38
- Total
- 7.99 vs 5 actual pts
Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.
What the xG says
Manchester United's underlying numbers are among the best in Premier League. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.53 per match, built on the league's highest shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 8 goals are 1.66 below 9.66 xG, while 5 points are 2.99 below 7.99 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.
Actual vs expected
Select a row to chart it across the season.
Goals minus xG, match by match
Manchester United are 1.66 goals below their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at -1.81, against Hull City on Sat 22/08.
- Goals
- 8
- xG
- 9.66
- Gap
- -1.66
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Goals | xG | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 22/08 | Hull City | 0 | 1.81 | -1.81 | -1.81 |
| Sun 30/08 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 4.56 | +0.44 | -1.37 |
| Sun 06/09 | Everton | 2 | 0.69 | +1.31 | -0.06 |
| Sun 13/09 | Manchester City | 0 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -1.06 |
| Sun 20/09 | Fulham | 1 | 1.60 | -0.60 | -1.66 |
Manchester United xG trend
Current form +0.47 npxGD per match
All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.
Out-created the opponent in 2 of 5 matches. The worst was against Everton on Sun 06/09 (-0.29).
- npxG · last 5
- 1.87
- npxGA · last 5
- 1.40
- npxG
- npxGA
- npxGD
- Avg so far
| Date | Opponent | npxG | npxGA | npxGD | Avg so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 22/08 | Hull City | 1.81 | 1.31 | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Sun 30/08 | Ipswich Town | 4.29 | 2.01 | +2.28 | +1.39 |
| Sun 06/09 | Everton | 0.72 | 1.01 | -0.29 | +0.83 |
| Sun 13/09 | Manchester City | 0.95 | 0.99 | -0.04 | +0.61 |
| Sun 20/09 | Fulham | 1.59 | 1.67 | -0.08 | +0.47 |
Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.87 npxG and 1.40 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.
Strength of schedule
- Season so far
- tied number 10 hardest of 20 in Premier League
- 0.00 xG vs league average
- Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures
Season so far
0.00 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 20
- Fulham Away −0.02
- Manchester City Home +0.34
- Everton Away −0.05
- Ipswich Town Home −0.14
- Hull City Away −0.14
Manchester United shots and chance quality
High volume, low quality. Manchester United take 22.6 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #1 in Premier League for volume and #18 for quality. 56% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 25%).
Attack
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Manchester United | 22.6 |
| #2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19.0 |
| #3 | Nottingham Forest | 16.4 |
| #4 | Brentford | 16.2 |
| #5 | Everton | 16.0 |
| #6 | Liverpool | 15.2 |
| =7 | Chelsea | 14.4 |
| =7 | Fulham | 14.4 |
| #9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 14.2 |
| =10 | Bournemouth | 13.6 |
| =10 | Manchester City | 13.6 |
| #12 | Sunderland | 13.2 |
| #13 | Arsenal | 13.0 |
| =14 | Hull City | 12.2 |
| =14 | Leeds United | 12.2 |
| #16 | Ipswich Town | 11.6 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | 10.6 |
| =18 | Coventry City | 10.2 |
| =18 | Newcastle United | 10.2 |
| #20 | Aston Villa | 9.6 |
- League avg
- 13.9
- Total
- 113 shots from 5 matches
| Rank | Club | npxG per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Manchester City | 0.14 |
| #2 | Sunderland | 0.13 |
| #3 | Leeds United | 0.13 |
| #4 | Ipswich Town | 0.13 |
| #5 | Arsenal | 0.12 |
| #6 | Crystal Palace | 0.12 |
| #7 | Brentford | 0.12 |
| #8 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0.11 |
| #9 | Fulham | 0.11 |
| #10 | Bournemouth | 0.11 |
| #11 | Coventry City | 0.10 |
| #12 | Chelsea | 0.10 |
| #13 | Everton | 0.09 |
| #14 | Aston Villa | 0.09 |
| #15 | Liverpool | 0.09 |
| #16 | Hull City | 0.09 |
| #17 | Newcastle United | 0.08 |
| #18 | Manchester United | 0.08 |
| #19 | Nottingham Forest | 0.07 |
| #20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0.07 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 9.36 npxG from 113 shots
Defence
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Nottingham Forest | 10.4 |
| =2 | Arsenal | 10.6 |
| =2 | Manchester United | 10.6 |
| #4 | Bournemouth | 10.8 |
| =5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 11.6 |
| =5 | Liverpool | 11.6 |
| #7 | Manchester City | 11.8 |
| #8 | Sunderland | 12.0 |
| #9 | Brentford | 13.4 |
| =10 | Everton | 13.8 |
| =10 | Hull City | 13.8 |
| #12 | Chelsea | 14.4 |
| #13 | Leeds United | 14.6 |
| #14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 15.2 |
| #15 | Aston Villa | 16.2 |
| #16 | Fulham | 16.6 |
| #17 | Crystal Palace | 16.8 |
| #18 | Ipswich Town | 17.2 |
| #19 | Coventry City | 17.4 |
| #20 | Newcastle United | 19.6 |
- League avg
- 13.9
- Total
- 53 shots allowed from 5 matches
| Rank | Club | npxGA per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Arsenal | 0.06 |
| #2 | Leeds United | 0.08 |
| #3 | Newcastle United | 0.08 |
| #4 | Coventry City | 0.08 |
| #5 | Liverpool | 0.09 |
| #6 | Brentford | 0.09 |
| #7 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0.09 |
| #8 | Hull City | 0.09 |
| #9 | Fulham | 0.10 |
| #10 | Everton | 0.10 |
| #11 | Nottingham Forest | 0.10 |
| #12 | Ipswich Town | 0.10 |
| #13 | Crystal Palace | 0.10 |
| #14 | Aston Villa | 0.11 |
| #15 | Bournemouth | 0.13 |
| #16 | Sunderland | 0.13 |
| #17 | Manchester United | 0.13 |
| #18 | Chelsea | 0.13 |
| #19 | Manchester City | 0.14 |
| #20 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0.16 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 6.99 npxGA from 53 shots
Shot profile
56% inside the box
League avg 64%
From 63 of 113 shots over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
72% allowed inside the box
League avg 64%
From 38 of 53 shots allowed over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
86% open play · 14% set pieces
League avg 25% set pieces
From 1.3 of 9.3 npxG over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
70% open play · 30% set pieces
League avg 25% set pieces
From 2.1 of 7.0 npxG allowed over 5 matches
Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.
Manchester United home and away xG
| Measure | Home only 2 matches with xG | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| xG / match | 2.78 | 1.37 |
| xGA / match | 1.56 | 1.30 |
| xGD / match | +1.22 | +0.07 |
| xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → | 1.92 | 1.38 |
Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.
Every Manchester United match by xG
Away this season
- Matches
- 3
- xG / match
- 1.37
- xGA / match
- 1.30
- xGD / match
- +0.07
- Points
- 2 of 9
Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.
Manchester United in Premier League
Attack
- xG / match #4 of 20
- Shots / match #1 of 20
- Chance quality #18 of 20
- Home xG #5 of 20
- Away xG #8 of 20
Defence
- xGA / match #8 of 20
- Shots allowed =2 of 20
- Chance quality allowed #17 of 20
About the data
- xG data
- Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
- Derived metrics
- xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
- Model metrics
- xPts is produced by our probability model.