xgEdge

Sunday, 14/12/2025 at 15:00

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Match report · Premier League

West Ham United 2:3 Aston Villa

West Ham United Home 1.03 xG · 10 shots
Aston Villa Away 0.67 xG · 8 shots
23 The result went against the chances

Goals

  1. 1' Mateus Fernandes West Ham United · 0.13 xG chance 1–0
  2. 9' Konstantinos Mavropanos (o.g.) Aston Villa · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
  3. 24' Jarrod Bowen West Ham United · 0.63 xG chance 2–1
  4. 50' Morgan Rogers Aston Villa · 0.44 xG chance 2–2
  5. 79' Morgan Rogers Aston Villa · 0.04 xG chance 2–3

The shots behind it

West Ham United Aston Villa
Shots
10
8
On target
3
5
Inside the box
7
4
xG per shot
0.10
0.10
Open play xG
0.92
0.82
Set-piece xG
0.08
0.00
Penalties
—
—

West Ham United's shots add up to 1.00 xG and Aston Villa's to 0.82; the published figures are 1.03 and 0.67.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

West Ham United · Jarrod Bowen · 24' · Goal · 5 m · 0.63 xG Aston Villa · Morgan Rogers · 50' · Goal · 8 m · 0.44 xG West Ham United · Mateus Fernandes · 1' · Goal · 4 m · 0.13 xG Aston Villa · Konstantinos Mavropanos · 9' · Goal · 8 m · 0.10 xG Aston Villa · Morgan Rogers · 90' · No goal · 10 m · 0.09 xG Aston Villa · Donyell Malen · 65' · No goal · 19 m · 0.06 xG West Ham United · Crysencio Summerville · 67' · No goal · 12 m · 0.05 xG West Ham United · Freddie Potts · 24' · No goal · 15 m · 0.04 xG Aston Villa · Morgan Rogers · 45' · No goal · 12 m · 0.04 xG West Ham United · El Hadji Malick Diouf · 62' · No goal · 16 m · 0.04 xG West Ham United · Crysencio Summerville · 78' · No goal · 4 m · 0.04 xG Aston Villa · Morgan Rogers · 79' · Goal · 27 m · 0.04 xG West Ham United · Mateus Fernandes · 61' · No goal · 23 m · 0.03 xG Aston Villa · Morgan Rogers · 87' · No goal · 19 m · 0.03 xG West Ham United · Crysencio Summerville · 45' · No goal · 14 m · 0.02 xG Aston Villa · Lucas Digne · 85' · No goal · 15 m · 0.02 xG West Ham United · Soungoutou Magassa · 53' · No goal · 33 m · 0.01 xG West Ham United · El Hadji Malick Diouf · 61' · No goal · 21 m · 0.01 xG

All shots

18 shots · 1.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

  • West Ham United
  • Aston Villa
  • Filled = goal
  • Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match
West Ham United

1.27 xG created 1.76 xGA

  • W 1.75 created, 0.52 conceded against Newcastle United
  • W 3.02 created, 1.06 conceded against Burnley
  • D 0.65 created, 4.05 conceded against Bournemouth
  • L 0.29 created, 1.24 conceded against Liverpool
  • D 0.79 created, 1.80 conceded against Manchester United
  • D 1.14 created, 1.87 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa

1.53 xG created 1.54 xGA

  • L 0.41 created, 1.19 conceded against Liverpool
  • W 1.70 created, 1.61 conceded against Bournemouth
  • W 1.58 created, 1.79 conceded against Leeds United
  • W 0.94 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton
  • W 2.41 created, 2.21 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
  • W 2.16 created, 1.92 conceded against Arsenal

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.