Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFC Koper 5:0 Brinje Grosuplje
FC Koper were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 5–0.
The model against the result
- FC Koper
- 47% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Brinje Grosuplje
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Recent form
1.65 xG created 1.34 xGA
- W 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against NŠ Mura
- W 0.87 created, 0.22 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- W 1.88 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje
- L 0.60 created, 1.49 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- W 2.19 created, 2.03 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- D 3.22 created, 1.14 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
1.38 xG created 2.09 xGA
- L 1.48 created, 1.72 conceded against NŠ Mura
- L 1.20 created, 3.53 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- W 1.56 created, 1.48 conceded against NK Celje
- L 0.90 created, 2.87 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- L 1.09 created, 1.46 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- W 2.06 created, 1.50 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brinje Grosuplje to win | 5.00 | +17.8% | Lost |
| FC Koper at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +11.6% | Lost |
| Brinje Grosuplje 2+ goals | 3.50 | +8.1% | Lost |
| Brinje Grosuplje to score | 1.53 | +7.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +7.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +2.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koper | 47.3% | 57.5% | −10.2 pp | 2.11 |
| Draw | 29.1% | 24.4% | +4.7 pp | 3.44 |
| Brinje Grosuplje | 23.6% | 18.1% | +5.5 pp | 4.25 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koper to score | 82.4% | 83.0% | −0.6 pp | 1.21 |
| FC Koper not to score | 17.6% | 17.0% | +0.6 pp | 5.68 |
| Brinje Grosuplje to score | 70.3% | 60.8% | +9.5 pp | 1.42 |
| Brinje Grosuplje not to score | 29.7% | 39.2% | −9.5 pp | 3.36 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 53.7% | +5.9 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.4% | 46.3% | −5.9 pp | 2.47 |
| FC Koper 2+ goals | 49.3% | 57.7% | −8.4 pp | 2.03 |
| FC Koper at most 1 goal | 50.7% | 42.3% | +8.4 pp | 1.97 |
| Brinje Grosuplje 2+ goals | 30.9% | 26.9% | +4.0 pp | 3.24 |
| Brinje Grosuplje at most 1 goal | 69.1% | 73.1% | −4.0 pp | 1.45 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | 76.6% | +3.1 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.3% | 23.4% | −3.1 pp | 4.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 54.6% | −2.0 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 45.4% | +2.0 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Koper sample
- 20 matches
- Brinje Grosuplje sample
- 10 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.