Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 17:00
24d 17h to kick-offNK Olimpija Ljubljana – NK Celje
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 35%
- Draw
- 30%
- NK Celje
- 34%
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana | Draw | NK Celje | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.84 | 3.28 | 2.92 |
- Total goals
- 2.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% NK Olimpija Ljubljana to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 3rd
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana attack v NK Celje defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 1st
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana defence v NK Celje attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.48 vs +0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.35 – 1.33
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana v NK Celje
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Olimpija Ljubljana | NK Celje |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.66 · 2nd | 1.59 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.32 · 4th | (better) 1.05 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.34 · 3rd | (better) +0.54 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.61 · 3rd | (better) 1.78 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.48 | (better) +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana clean sheet
- 24%
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample
- 20 matches
- NK Celje sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Celje
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.