Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 16h to kick-offNK Olimpija Ljubljana – NŠ Mura
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 37%
- Draw
- 31%
- NŠ Mura
- 32%
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana | Draw | NŠ Mura | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.70 | 3.20 | 3.15 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- Model
- 37.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 59.6%
- Probability gap
- −22.5 pp
- Edge
- −44.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.70
- Market odds
- 1.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.83
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.9%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.2%
- Probability gap
- +7.1 pp
- Edge
- +15.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.20
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.36
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.9%
-
NŠ Mura
- Model
- 31.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.3%
- Probability gap
- +15.5 pp
- Edge
- +74.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.15
- Market odds
- 5.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.31
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.9%
Outcomes with value
NŠ Mura to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
NŠ Mura to win
Model 31.7% vs. bookmaker 16.3%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans NK Olimpija Ljubljana
37% NK Olimpija Ljubljana to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 2nd
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana attack v NŠ Mura defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 7th
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana defence v NŠ Mura attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.48 vs +0.05
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.23
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana v NŠ Mura
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Olimpija Ljubljana | NŠ Mura |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.66 · 2nd | 1.26 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.32 · 4th | 1.39 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.34 · 3rd | -0.13 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.61 · 3rd | 1.22 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.48 | +0.05 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana clean sheet
- 26%
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample
- 20 matches
- NŠ Mura sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NŠ Mura
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.