xgEdge

Expected goals

Motherwell expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 4 Oct

Motherwell's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Motherwell xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.36 xG per match
#7/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
9.53 7 matches
Defence
1.58 xGA per match
#10/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
11.07 7 matches
xG difference
-0.22 xGD per match
#7/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.54 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.37 xPts per match
#6/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
9.57 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Motherwell's underlying numbers sit close to the Scottish Premiership average. They rank #7 for xG difference at -0.22 per match, from about average shot volume at the league's lowest chance quality. Their 9 goals are 0.53 below 9.53 xG, while 8 points are 1.57 below 9.57 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.52 xG from penalties
9 9.53 -0.53 scored 0.53 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 11.07 -0.07 conceded 0.07 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 9.57 -1.57 1.57 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Motherwell are 0.53 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -0.89, against Falkirk FC on Sun 09/08.

Goals
9
xG
9.53
Gap
-0.53
Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 30/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +0.00 -0.89 +0.00 +0.85 +0.34 -0.43 -0.53 +0.00 -0.89 +0.89 +0.85 -0.51 -0.77 -0.10 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Motherwell: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 02/08 Hibernian 2 2.00 +0.00 +0.00
Sun 09/08 Falkirk FC 0 0.89 -0.89 -0.89
Sun 30/08 St. Mirren 3 2.11 +0.89 +0.00
Wed 02/09 Dundee United 3 2.15 +0.85 +0.85
Sat 05/09 Rangers 0 0.51 -0.51 +0.34
Tue 15/09 Aberdeen 0 0.77 -0.77 -0.43
Sat 19/09 Dundee FC 1 1.10 -0.10 -0.53

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Motherwell xG trend

Current form -0.12 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 7 matches. The worst was against Rangers on Sat 05/09 (-2.64).

npxG · last 6
1.13
npxGA · last 6
1.25
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.08 Sun 02/08 +0.46 Sun 09/08 -0.89 Sun 30/08 +1.96 Wed 02/09 -2.64 Sat 05/09 -0.15 Tue 15/09 +0.53 Sat 19/09 -0.09 season avg
Motherwell: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 02/08 Hibernian 1.22 1.14 +0.08 +0.08
Sun 09/08 Falkirk FC 0.89 0.43 +0.46 +0.27
Sun 30/08 St. Mirren 1.38 2.27 -0.89 -0.12
Wed 02/09 Dundee United 2.15 0.19 +1.96 +0.40
Sat 05/09 Rangers 0.51 3.15 -2.64 -0.21
Tue 15/09 Aberdeen 0.76 0.91 -0.15 -0.20
Sat 19/09 Dundee FC 1.10 0.57 +0.53 -0.09

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.14 npxG and 1.24 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 9 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 8 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 9 hardest of 12

  1. Dundee FC Away −0.48
  2. Aberdeen Home −0.33
  3. Rangers Away +0.85
  4. Dundee United Home −0.09
  5. St. Mirren Away −0.08
  6. Falkirk FC Home −0.15
  7. Hibernian Away −0.03

Last 5

−0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 12

  1. Dundee FC Away −0.48
  2. Aberdeen Home −0.33
  3. Rangers Away +0.85
  4. Dundee United Home −0.09
  5. St. Mirren Away −0.08

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Motherwell shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Motherwell take 14.6 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #6 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #12 for quality. 67% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.6 shots per match
#6/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
102 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#12/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
8.01 npxG from 102 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.1 shots per match
#8/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
106 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#4/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
8.66 npxGA from 106 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

67% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 68 of 102 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 71 of 106 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.1 of 7.9 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.1 of 8.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Motherwell home and away xG

Motherwell per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.27 1.43
xGA / match 0.51 2.38
xGD / match +0.76 -0.95
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.90 0.97

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Motherwell match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.36
xGA / match
1.58
xGD / match
-0.22
Points
8 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Dundee FC A xG 1.10 xGA 1.36 P xGD -0.26
  2. Tue 15/09 Aberdeen H xG 0.77 xGA 0.91 xGD -0.14
  3. Sat 05/09 Rangers A Weakest underlying xG 0.51 xGA 3.93 P xGD -3.42
  4. Wed 02/09 Dundee United H Best underlying xG 2.15 xGA 0.19 xGD +1.96
  5. Sun 30/08 St. Mirren A xG 2.11 P xGA 2.32 xGD -0.21
  6. Sun 09/08 Falkirk FC H xG 0.89 xGA 0.44 xGD +0.45
  7. Sun 02/08 Hibernian A xG 2.00 P xGA 1.92 P xGD +0.08

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.93. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Motherwell in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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