Serie A results 2026/2027
Every Serie A match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.
Model record
Most likely outcome landed in 13 of 30 matches (43%). The probabilities implied about 14 (46%). Brier score 0.60 (reference 0.65; lower is better). How the model works →
- Home
- Draw
- Away
Saturday, 19/09/2026
2 matchesSunday, 13/09/2026
1 match-
xG 1.08 – 2.79 Lower-xG side wonPre-match probabilities→The outcome the model rated least likely landed
Saturday, 12/09/2026
1 match-
xG 2.01 – 1.25 Draw with an xG gapPre-match probabilities→
Sunday, 06/09/2026
2 matchesSaturday, 05/09/2026
1 matchMonday, 31/08/2026
1 match-
xG 0.15 – 1.05 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
Saturday, 29/08/2026
2 matchesMonday, 24/08/2026
1 match-
xG 1.78 – 0.63 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
Sunday, 23/08/2026
1 match-
xG 0.88 – 2.70 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
Saturday, 22/08/2026
1 match-
xG 2.14 – 1.50 Draw with an xG gapNo pre-match probabilities→
xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.