Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:30
20d 16h to kick-offAsteras Aktor – APO Levadiakos
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Asteras Aktor
- 40%
- Draw
- 33%
- APO Levadiakos
- 26%
| Asteras Aktor | Draw | APO Levadiakos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.47 | 3.01 | 3.79 |
- Total goals
- 2.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Asteras Aktor
40% Asteras Aktor to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 11th
- Asteras Aktor attack v APO Levadiakos defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 9th
- Asteras Aktor defence v APO Levadiakos attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.23 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.25 – 0.99
- Asteras Aktor v APO Levadiakos
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Asteras Aktor | APO Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.04 · 8th | 0.62 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.24 · 7th | 1.41 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.20 · 7th | -0.79 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.22 · 7th | 0.71 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.23 | -0.77 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Asteras Aktor clean sheet
- 34%
- Asteras Aktor 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.0%
- 1:0
- 11.1%
- 0:0
- 10.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Asteras Aktor sample
- 20 matches
- APO Levadiakos sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Asteras Aktor
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · APO Levadiakos
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.