Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
33d 19h to kick-offNPS Volos – AE Kifisia
Model updated 4 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NPS Volos
- 32%
- Draw
- 35%
- AE Kifisia
- 34%
| NPS Volos | Draw | AE Kifisia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.16 | 2.88 | 2.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% AE Kifisia to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 12th
- AE Kifisia attack v NPS Volos defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 12th
- AE Kifisia defence v NPS Volos attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.19 vs -0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.04 – 1.08
- NPS Volos v AE Kifisia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NPS Volos | AE Kifisia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 10th | (better) 1.33 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.53 · 11th | (better) 0.70 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.60 · 10th | (better) +0.63 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.94 · 12th | (better) 1.92 · 4th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.58 | (better) +0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- NPS Volos clean sheet
- 31%
- NPS Volos 2+ goals
- 28%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.7%
- 0:0
- 12.1%
- 0:1
- 10.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NPS Volos sample
- 20 matches
- AE Kifisia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NPS Volos
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · AE Kifisia
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.