Monday, 02/11/2026 at 17:00
Full timeAtromitos Athens 3:0 NPS Volos
Atromitos Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Atromitos Athens's attack: 2.34 xG against 1.49 projected (+0.85). NPS Volos produced 0.45 xG against 0.85 projected (−0.40).
Goals
- 27' Serginho Atromitos Athens · 0.27 xG chance 1–0
- 67' Juan José Perea Atromitos Athens · 0.63 xG chance 2–0
- 90' Panagiotis Tsantilas Atromitos Athens · 0.83 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Atromitos Athens
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- NPS Volos
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Atromitos Athens produced 0.85 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 5
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 9
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 2.04
- 0.39
- Set-piece xG
- 0.22
- 0.07
- Penalties
- —
- —
Atromitos Athens's shots add up to 2.27 xG and NPS Volos's to 0.46; the published figures are 2.34 and 0.45.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
17 shots · 2.72 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Atromitos Athens
- NPS Volos
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.88 xG created 1.06 xGA
- L 1.33 created, 1.61 conceded against PAOK
- D 0.24 created, 0.46 conceded against PS Kalamata
- D 1.47 created, 0.69 conceded against Iraklis 1908
- L 1.19 created, 1.72 conceded against AE Kifisia
- L 0.49 created, 1.17 conceded against Asteras Aktor
- L 0.57 created, 0.73 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
0.69 xG created 2.06 xGA
- D 0.41 created, 1.62 conceded against Olympiacos FC
- L 0.76 created, 2.25 conceded against PS Kalamata
- L 1.39 created, 1.92 conceded against AEK Athens
- L 1.18 created, 3.15 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- D 0.28 created, 1.32 conceded against APO Levadiakos
- L 0.14 created, 2.07 conceded against Panathinaikos
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 qualified edges flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +7.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +6.4% | Lost |
| NPS Volos at most 1 goal | 1.29 | +2.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos Athens | 51.0% | 51.3% | −0.4 pp | 1.96 |
| Draw | 30.4% | 26.5% | +3.9 pp | 3.29 |
| NPS Volos | 18.6% | 22.1% | −3.5 pp | 5.37 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos Athens to score | 80.0% | 78.3% | +1.7 pp | 1.25 |
| Atromitos Athens not to score | 20.0% | 21.7% | −1.7 pp | 5.00 |
| NPS Volos to score | 60.2% | 62.5% | −2.3 pp | 1.66 |
| NPS Volos not to score | 39.8% | 37.5% | +2.3 pp | 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 52.0% | −2.1 pp | 2.00 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.1% | 48.0% | +2.1 pp | 2.00 |
| Atromitos Athens 2+ goals | 45.1% | 48.5% | −3.5 pp | 2.22 |
| Atromitos Athens at most 1 goal | 54.9% | 51.5% | +3.5 pp | 1.82 |
| NPS Volos 2+ goals | 20.6% | 26.9% | −6.3 pp | 4.86 |
| NPS Volos at most 1 goal | 79.4% | 73.1% | +6.3 pp | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | 73.1% | −1.1 pp | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 26.9% | +1.1 pp | 3.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 48.7% | −6.5 pp | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 51.3% | +6.5 pp | 1.73 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atromitos Athens sample
- 20 matches
- NPS Volos sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.