Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 14:00
Full timeSC Oțelul Galați 1:1 Sepsi OSK
SC Oțelul Galați were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was SC Oțelul Galați's attack: 2.74 xG against 2.02 projected (+0.72). Sepsi OSK produced 0.55 xG against 1.13 projected (−0.58).
The model against the result
- SC Oțelul Galați
- 58%
- Draw
- 25% What happened
- Sepsi OSK
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
SC Oțelul Galați produced 0.72 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 7
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 15
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.08
Recent form
1.50 xG created 2.17 xGA
- L 0.48 created, 3.19 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 0.20 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- L 2.10 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- L 0.42 created, 2.02 conceded against FCSB
- D 4.19 created, 1.65 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- L 1.62 created, 1.81 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
1.06 xG created 2.49 xGA
- L 1.19 created, 3.79 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 2.41 created, 1.89 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- L 0.72 created, 2.50 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 0.97 created, 1.95 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- D 1.05 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.00 created, 4.06 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged4 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +38.5% | Lost |
| SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals | 2.10 | +30.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +17.1% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | +17.1% | Won |
| SC Oțelul Galați to win | 1.95 | +12.3% | Lost |
| SC Oțelul Galați to score | 1.22 | +8.6% | Won |
| Sepsi OSK 2+ goals | 3.40 | +6.9% | Lost |
| Sepsi OSK to score | 1.50 | +5.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Oțelul Galați | 57.6% | 45.8% | +11.8 pp | 1.74 |
| Draw | 24.5% | 27.9% | −3.4 pp | 4.08 |
| Sepsi OSK | 17.9% | 26.3% | −8.4 pp | 5.60 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Oțelul Galați to score | 88.9% | 76.6% | +12.3 pp | 1.13 |
| SC Oțelul Galați not to score | 11.1% | 23.4% | −12.3 pp | 8.99 |
| Sepsi OSK to score | 70.4% | 62.5% | +7.9 pp | 1.42 |
| Sepsi OSK not to score | 29.6% | 37.5% | −7.9 pp | 3.37 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | 50.0% | +13.9 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.1% | 50.0% | −13.9 pp | 2.77 |
| SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals | 62.3% | 44.3% | +18.0 pp | 1.61 |
| SC Oțelul Galați at most 1 goal | 37.7% | 55.7% | −18.0 pp | 2.65 |
| Sepsi OSK 2+ goals | 31.4% | 27.7% | +3.8 pp | 3.18 |
| Sepsi OSK at most 1 goal | 68.6% | 72.3% | −3.8 pp | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 68.7% | +17.1 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 31.3% | −17.1 pp | 7.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 42.9% | +20.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 57.1% | −20.1 pp | 2.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Oțelul Galați sample
- 20 matches
- Sepsi OSK sample
- 13 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.