Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 16:30
Full timeUniversitatea Craiova 2:1 FC Botoșani
Universitatea Craiova were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 73%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Universitatea Craiova's attack: 1.13 xG against 2.60 projected (−1.47). FC Botoșani produced 0.54 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.44).
The model against the result
- Universitatea Craiova
- 73% What happened
- Draw
- 18%
- FC Botoșani
- 10%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Universitatea Craiova produced 1.47 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 6
- On target
- 2
- 2
- Inside the box
- 5
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.09
Recent form
2.50 xG created 0.52 xGA
- W 2.05 created, 0.66 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- W 1.07 created, 0.60 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- W 3.14 created, 0.61 conceded against FCSB
- W 3.33 created, 0.47 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- W 1.37 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- W 4.06 created, 0.00 conceded against Sepsi OSK
2.19 xG created 2.08 xGA
- W 3.79 created, 1.19 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 1.19 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- L 0.92 created, 3.62 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- W 4.32 created, 1.03 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 0.44 created, 3.85 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 2.47 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged5 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botoșani 2+ goals | 5.00 | +28.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +19.2% | Won |
| FC Botoșani to score | 1.80 | +17.7% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | +5.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | +3.1% | Won |
| Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals | 1.33 | +0.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 72.7% | 72.6% | +0.0 pp | 1.38 |
| Draw | 17.7% | 16.9% | +0.8 pp | 5.63 |
| FC Botoșani | 9.6% | 10.4% | −0.9 pp | 10.45 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova to score | 94.0% | 91.3% | +2.7 pp | 1.06 |
| Universitatea Craiova not to score | 6.0% | 8.7% | −2.7 pp | 16.75 |
| FC Botoșani to score | 65.4% | 51.5% | +13.9 pp | 1.53 |
| FC Botoșani not to score | 34.6% | 48.5% | −13.9 pp | 2.89 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 48.5% | +13.9 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.6% | 51.5% | −13.9 pp | 2.66 |
| Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals | 75.7% | 70.9% | +4.8 pp | 1.32 |
| Universitatea Craiova at most 1 goal | 24.3% | 29.1% | −4.8 pp | 4.12 |
| FC Botoșani 2+ goals | 25.7% | 18.9% | +6.8 pp | 3.89 |
| FC Botoșani at most 1 goal | 74.3% | 81.1% | −6.8 pp | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.2% | 82.8% | +7.4 pp | 1.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.8% | 17.2% | −7.4 pp | 10.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | 63.8% | +7.9 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.3% | 36.2% | −7.9 pp | 3.53 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- FC Botoșani sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.