xgEdge

Expected goals

FK Mladost Lučani expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

SuperLiga (Serbia) · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

FK Mladost Lučani's attacking and defensive expected goals in SuperLiga (Serbia) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FK Mladost Lučani xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.08 xG per match
#12/14
Attack (xG per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 2.78
#2 FK Vojvodina 2.77
#3 FK Partizan 2.36
#4 FK Radnički 1923 2.14
#5 FK Železničar Pančevo 2.13
#6 FK Novi Pazar 2.00
#7 FK IMT Beograd 1.85
#8 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.62
#9 FK Čukarički 1.50
#10 FK Radnički Niš 1.48
#11 OFK Beograd 1.29
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 1.08
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.80
#14 FK Zemun 0.73
League avg
1.76
Total
5.42 5 matches
Defence
2.11 xGA per match
#12/14
Defence (xGA per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 0.98
#2 FK IMT Beograd 1.13
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 1.26
#4 FK Radnički 1923 1.35
#5 FK Radnički Niš 1.42
#6 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.46
#7 FK Vojvodina 1.49
#8 FK Partizan 1.55
#9 FK Čukarički 1.67
#10 FK Novi Pazar 2.04
#11 OFK Beograd 2.09
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 2.11
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 2.46
#14 FK Zemun 3.60
League avg
1.76
Total
10.57 5 matches
xG difference
-1.03 xGD per match
#12/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda +1.80
#2 FK Vojvodina +1.28
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo +0.87
#4 FK Partizan +0.81
#5 FK Radnički 1923 +0.79
#6 FK IMT Beograd +0.72
#7 FK Radnik Surdulica +0.16
#8 FK Radnički Niš +0.06
#9 FK Novi Pazar -0.04
#10 FK Čukarički -0.16
#11 OFK Beograd -0.80
#12 FK Mladost Lučani -1.03
#13 FK Mačva Šabac -1.66
#14 FK Zemun -2.86
League avg
0.00
Total
-5.15 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.69 xPts per match
#12/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 2.36
#2 FK Vojvodina 1.93
#3 FK Radnički 1923 1.92
#4 FK Partizan 1.81
#5 FK Železničar Pančevo 1.78
#6 FK IMT Beograd 1.67
#7 FK Radnički Niš 1.51
#8 FK Novi Pazar 1.44
#9 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.39
#10 FK Čukarički 1.32
#11 OFK Beograd 0.86
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 0.69
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.68
#14 FK Zemun 0.17
League avg
1.41
Total
3.45 vs 16 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 5 of 10 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

FK Mladost Lučani's underlying numbers are among the weakest in SuperLiga (Serbia). They rank #12 for xG difference at -1.03 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 6 goals are 0.58 above 5.42 xG, while 10 points are 6.55 above 3.45 xPts — both over the 5 matches with xG. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 5.42 +0.58 scored 0.58 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 10.57 -3.57 conceded 3.57 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
10 3.45 +6.55 6.55 points above xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FK Mladost Lučani are 0.58 goals above their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
6
xG
5.42
Gap
+0.58
Mon 03/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.20 +0.40 +0.29 -0.20 +0.58 -1.20 +1.60 -0.11 -0.49 +0.78 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FK Mladost Lučani: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 03/08 FK Železničar Pančevo 0 1.20 -1.20 -1.20
Sun 23/08 FK Partizan 3 1.40 +1.60 +0.40
Sat 05/09 FK Radnički Niš 1 1.11 -0.11 +0.29
Sat 12/09 FK Radnički 1923 0 0.49 -0.49 -0.20
Sun 20/09 FK Mačva Šabac 2 1.22 +0.78 +0.58

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FK Mladost Lučani xG trend

Current form -1.03 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 0 of 5 matches. The worst was against FK Radnički 1923 on Sat 12/09 (-2.00).

npxG · last 5
1.08
npxGA · last 5
2.11
-2 -1 0 +1 -0.67 Mon 03/08 -0.82 Sun 23/08 -1.09 Sat 05/09 -2.00 Sat 12/09 -0.57 Sun 20/09 -1.03 season avg
FK Mladost Lučani: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 03/08 FK Železničar Pančevo 1.20 1.87 -0.67 -0.67
Sun 23/08 FK Partizan 1.40 2.22 -0.82 -0.75
Sat 05/09 FK Radnički Niš 1.11 2.20 -1.09 -0.86
Sat 12/09 FK Radnički 1923 0.49 2.49 -2.00 -1.15
Sun 20/09 FK Mačva Šabac 1.22 1.79 -0.57 -1.03

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.08 npxG and 2.11 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 10 hardest of 14 in SuperLiga (Serbia)
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 7 hardest of 14 in SuperLiga (Serbia)
+0.10 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 14

  1. FK Mačva Šabac Away −0.77
  2. FK Radnički 1923 Away +0.29
  3. FK Radnički Niš Home −0.02
  4. FK IMT Beograd Away +0.44
  5. FK Partizan Home +0.59
  6. FK Zemun Away −1.19
  7. FK Čukarički Home −0.12
  8. FK Železničar Pančevo Away +0.22
  9. FK Novi Pazar Home −0.09
  10. FK Radnik Surdulica Away −0.03

Last 5

+0.10 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 14

  1. FK Mačva Šabac Away −0.77
  2. FK Radnički 1923 Away +0.29
  3. FK Radnički Niš Home −0.02
  4. FK IMT Beograd Away +0.44
  5. FK Partizan Home +0.59

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FK Mladost Lučani shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. FK Mladost Lučani take 9.0 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #12 in SuperLiga (Serbia) for volume and #7 for quality. 53% of their shots come from inside the box (league 59%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.0 shots per match
#12/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FK Partizan 20.0
#2 FK Crvena zvezda 19.3
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 18.8
#4 FK Vojvodina 17.3
#5 FK Radnik Surdulica 16.3
#6 FK Radnički 1923 16.2
=7 FK IMT Beograd 14.0
=7 FK Novi Pazar 14.0
#9 FK Radnički Niš 13.7
#10 FK Čukarički 12.0
#11 OFK Beograd 11.3
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 9.0
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 8.6
#14 FK Zemun 8.3
League avg
14.2
Total
45 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#7/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FK Vojvodina 0.16
#2 FK Crvena zvezda 0.14
#3 FK Novi Pazar 0.14
#4 FK Radnički 1923 0.13
#5 FK IMT Beograd 0.13
#6 FK Čukarički 0.12
#7 FK Mladost Lučani 0.12
#8 FK Partizan 0.12
#9 OFK Beograd 0.11
#10 FK Železničar Pančevo 0.11
#11 FK Radnički Niš 0.11
#12 FK Radnik Surdulica 0.10
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.09
#14 FK Zemun 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
5.42 npxG from 45 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
19.4 shots per match
#13/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 8.9
#2 FK IMT Beograd 9.7
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 9.8
#4 FK Vojvodina 11.6
#5 FK Partizan 11.9
#6 FK Radnički 1923 11.9
#7 FK Radnik Surdulica 12.9
#8 OFK Beograd 13.9
#9 FK Radnički Niš 13.9
#10 FK Novi Pazar 15.3
#11 FK Čukarički 15.7
#12 FK Mačva Šabac 19.1
#13 FK Mladost Lučani 19.4
#14 FK Zemun 24.4
League avg
14.2
Total
97 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#3/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FK Radnički Niš 0.10
#2 FK Čukarički 0.11
#3 FK Mladost Lučani 0.11
#4 FK Radnik Surdulica 0.11
#5 FK Crvena zvezda 0.11
#6 FK Radnički 1923 0.11
#7 FK IMT Beograd 0.12
#8 FK Mačva Šabac 0.13
#9 FK Železničar Pančevo 0.13
#10 FK Vojvodina 0.13
#11 FK Novi Pazar 0.13
#12 FK Partizan 0.13
#13 FK Zemun 0.15
#14 OFK Beograd 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
10.57 npxGA from 97 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

53% inside the box

League avg 59%

From 24 of 45 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

52% allowed inside the box

League avg 59%

From 50 of 97 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FK Mladost Lučani home and away xG

FK Mladost Lučani per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 4 2 with xG 6 3 with xG
xG / match 1.26 0.97
xGA / match 2.21 2.05
xGD / match -0.96 -1.08
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.73 0.67

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FK Mladost Lučani match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
4 2 with xG
xG / match
1.26
xGA / match
2.21
xGD / match
-0.96
Points
8 of 12
  1. Sat 05/09 FK Radnički Niš H Against the chances xG 1.11 xGA 2.20 xGD -1.09
  2. Sun 23/08 FK Partizan H xG 1.40 xGA 2.22 xGD -0.82
  3. Sun 09/08 FK Čukarički H
  4. Sun 26/07 FK Novi Pazar H

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FK Mladost Lučani in SuperLiga (Serbia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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