Monday, 02/11/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Mladost Lučani 0:1 FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnik Surdulica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Radnik Surdulica's attack: 0.97 xG against 1.73 projected (−0.76). FK Mladost Lučani produced 0.55 xG against 1.26 projected (−0.71).
The model against the result
- FK Mladost Lučani
- 25%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 47% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Radnik Surdulica produced 0.76 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 14
- On target
- 1
- 2
- Inside the box
- 6
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.07
Recent form
1.05 xG created 2.60 xGA
- W 1.11 created, 2.20 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 0.49 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- W 1.22 created, 1.79 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- D 0.72 created, 1.39 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 0.46 created, 5.16 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- D 2.29 created, 2.55 conceded against FK Vojvodina
1.98 xG created 1.70 xGA
- W 1.63 created, 2.70 conceded against FK Čukarički
- D 3.62 created, 0.20 conceded against FK Zemun
- D 2.02 created, 3.40 conceded against FK Partizan
- L 1.33 created, 1.37 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- W 2.51 created, 0.26 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 0.76 created, 2.28 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged2 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 2.63 | +40.4% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +27.7% | Lost |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to win | 2.63 | +23.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +18.6% | Lost |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 1.36 | +15.4% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | +14.5% | Lost |
| FK Mladost Lučani to score | 1.36 | +1.8% | Lost |
| FK Mladost Lučani 2+ goals | 2.75 | +1.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Mladost Lučani | 25.2% | 34.4% | −9.2 pp | 3.96 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 29.6% | −1.9 pp | 3.62 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 47.1% | 36.0% | +11.1 pp | 2.12 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Mladost Lučani to score | 74.7% | 68.7% | +5.9 pp | 1.34 |
| FK Mladost Lučani not to score | 25.3% | 31.3% | −5.9 pp | 3.95 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 84.6% | 68.7% | +15.9 pp | 1.18 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica not to score | 15.4% | 31.3% | −15.9 pp | 6.50 |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | 50.0% | +14.7 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.3% | 50.0% | −14.7 pp | 2.83 |
| FK Mladost Lučani 2+ goals | 36.7% | 33.7% | +3.0 pp | 2.72 |
| FK Mladost Lučani at most 1 goal | 63.3% | 66.3% | −3.0 pp | 1.58 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 53.5% | 35.5% | +18.0 pp | 1.87 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica at most 1 goal | 46.5% | 64.5% | −18.0 pp | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | 68.7% | +15.2 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.1% | 31.3% | −15.2 pp | 6.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 43.7% | +15.7 pp | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | 56.3% | −15.7 pp | 2.46 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Mladost Lučani sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 57 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.