Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFK Radnički Niš 2:3 FK Partizan
FK Partizan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2.
The model against the result
- FK Radnički Niš
- 32%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Partizan
- 41% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.39 xG created 1.93 xGA
- L 2.20 created, 1.11 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.66 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 0.69 created, 3.66 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 1.44 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- L 0.26 created, 2.51 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- L 1.11 created, 1.09 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
1.82 xG created 1.60 xGA
- L 1.16 created, 1.96 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 2.02 created, 1.55 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- D 3.40 created, 2.02 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- W 0.51 created, 1.58 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- L 0.80 created, 1.27 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- L 3.05 created, 1.19 conceded against FK Čukarički
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged5 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 3.00 | +33.8% | Won |
| FK Radnički Niš to win | 4.00 | +27.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +13.4% | Won |
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 1.40 | +11.6% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +6.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.80 | +5.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +4.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš | 31.8% | 23.1% | +8.8 pp | 3.14 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 24.3% | +3.4 pp | 3.62 |
| FK Partizan | 40.5% | 52.7% | −12.1 pp | 2.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 79.7% | 66.3% | +13.4 pp | 1.25 |
| FK Radnički Niš not to score | 20.3% | 33.7% | −13.4 pp | 4.92 |
| FK Partizan to score | 83.5% | 81.4% | +2.1 pp | 1.20 |
| FK Partizan not to score | 16.5% | 18.6% | −2.1 pp | 6.06 |
| Both teams to score | 68.0% | 55.7% | +12.3 pp | 1.47 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.0% | 44.3% | −12.3 pp | 3.13 |
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 44.6% | 31.3% | +13.3 pp | 2.24 |
| FK Radnički Niš at most 1 goal | 55.4% | 68.7% | −13.3 pp | 1.80 |
| FK Partizan 2+ goals | 51.2% | 53.7% | −2.5 pp | 1.95 |
| FK Partizan at most 1 goal | 48.8% | 46.3% | +2.5 pp | 2.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 76.6% | +9.2 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 23.4% | −9.2 pp | 7.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | 55.3% | +7.4 pp | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | 44.7% | −7.4 pp | 2.68 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.