FK Radnički Niš – FK Železničar Pančevo prediction, 2 November 2026 · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Monday, 02/11/2026 at 18:00 Mon 2 November, 18:00

Kicked off · odds locked

Match preview · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Radnički Niš Home 13th in SuperLiga (Serbia)

1.30

FK Železničar Pančevo Away 3rd in SuperLiga (Serbia)

1.43 Projected xG

FK Radnički Niš: 32%; Mkt 27% Market 27%; Fair 3.14 Fair odds 3.14
Draw: 30%; Mkt 28% Market 28%; Fair 3.33 Fair odds 3.33
FK Železničar Pančevo: 38%; Mkt 46% Market 46%; Fair 2.62 Fair odds 2.62

No qualified edge

The largest edge is FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals at +24.4%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Kicked off. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

FK Radnički Niš 20/20
FK Železničar Pančevo 20/20

Model updated 2 November, 17:02
Top odds updated 2 November, 12:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices, locked at kick-off.

FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +24.4%

Model 38.3%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 2.61 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: +3.62%
Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +12.2%

Model 61.2%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.63 Bookmaker odds 1.83

Model skill: -0.43%
FK Radnički Niš to win Match result

Edge +11.5%

Model 31.9%

Market 26.8%

Fair odds 3.14 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: +7.19%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +8.5%

Model 52.9%

Market 46.1%

Fair odds 1.89 Bookmaker odds 2.05

Model skill: -0.89%

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Match result

FK Radnički Niš to win Match result

Edge +11.5%

Model 31.9%

Market 26.8%

Fair odds 3.14 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: +7.19%
Draw Match result

Edge +2.0%

Model 30.0%

Market 27.5%

Fair odds 3.33 Bookmaker odds 3.40

Model skill: -1.04%
FK Železničar Pančevo to win Match result

Edge -21.8%

Model 38.1%

Market 45.7%

Fair odds 2.62 Bookmaker odds 2.05

Model skill: +7.20%

Model against the market

FK Radnički Niš to win

Model: 31.9%
Market, margin removed: 26.8%

Probability gap: +5.1 pp
Edge: +11.5%
Fair odds: 3.14
Market odds: 3.50 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.29
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

Draw

Model: 30.0%
Market, margin removed: 27.5%

Probability gap: +2.4 pp
Edge: +2.0%
Fair odds: 3.33
Market odds: 3.40 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.50
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

FK Železničar Pančevo to win

Model: 38.1%
Market, margin removed: 45.7%

Probability gap: −7.6 pp
Edge: −21.8%
Fair odds: 2.62
Market odds: 2.05 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.75
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +8.5%

Model 52.9%

Market 46.1%

Fair odds 1.89 Bookmaker odds 2.05

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +6.5%

Model 79.9%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.25 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -17.6%

Model 47.1%

Market 53.9%

Fair odds 2.13 Bookmaker odds 1.75

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -34.6%

Model 20.1%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 4.97 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: -0.01%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +12.2%

Model 61.2%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.63 Bookmaker odds 1.83

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -28.9%

Model 38.8%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 2.58 Bookmaker odds 1.83

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +24.4%

Model 38.3%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 2.61 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: +3.62%
FK Radnički Niš to score Goals by team

Edge +9.1%

Model 75.6%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.32 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: +3.77%
FK Železničar Pančevo to score Goals by team

Edge -1.6%

Model 78.7%

Market 75.0%

Fair odds 1.27 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: +2.56%
FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -5.2%

Model 43.1%

Market 42.3%

Fair odds 2.32 Bookmaker odds 2.20

Model skill: +2.61%
FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -8.1%

Model 56.9%

Market 57.7%

Fair odds 1.76 Bookmaker odds 1.62

Model skill: +2.61%
FK Radnički Niš at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -17.7%

Model 61.7%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.62 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: +3.62%
FK Železničar Pančevo not to score Goals by team

Edge -20.1%

Model 21.3%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 4.70 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +2.56%
FK Radnički Niš not to score Goals by team

Edge -35.8%

Model 24.4%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 4.09 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: +3.77%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Radnički Niš xG 1.39 xGA 1.93

L 2.20 created, 1.11 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
W 2.66 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
L 0.69 created, 3.66 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 1.44 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 0.26 created, 2.51 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
L 1.11 created, 1.09 conceded against FK Novi Pazar

FK Železničar Pančevo xG 2.31 xGA 0.75

L 0.66 created, 1.08 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 4.63 created, 0.11 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 2.89 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 3.42 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Zemun
W 1.27 created, 0.80 conceded against FK Partizan
W 0.99 created, 1.03 conceded against FK IMT Beograd

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.74
Over 2.5 goals: 53%
Both teams to score: 61%
FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals: 43%
FK Železničar Pančevo clean sheet: 24%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 15.0%
1:2: 10.0%
2:1: 9.0%

Why the model leans FK Železničar Pančevo, but not by much

Attack, defence and recent form all point to FK Železničar Pančevo.

Attack: Favours FK Železničar Pančevo; 5th vs 9th; FK Železničar Pančevo attack v FK Radnički Niš defence
Defence: Favours FK Železničar Pančevo; 3rd vs 10th; FK Železničar Pančevo defence v FK Radnički Niš attack
Recent xG form: Favours FK Železničar Pančevo; +1.56 vs -0.53; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: FK Radnički Niš and FK Železničar Pančevo compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FK Radnički Niš	FK Železničar Pančevo
xG / match	1.34 · 10th	(better) 2.08 · 4th
xGA / match	1.55 · 6th	(better) 1.11 · 3rd
xGD / match	-0.20 · 10th	(better) +0.97 · 2nd
xPts / match	1.33 · 9th	(better) 1.75 · 5th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.53	(better) +1.56

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: FK Radnički Niš and FK Železničar Pančevo compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FK Radnički Niš	FK Železničar Pančevo
xG / match	1.34 · 10th	(better) 2.08 · 4th
npxG / match	1.34	(better) 2.08
Shots / match	13.2 · 9th	(better) 15.1 · 6th
npxG / shot	0.10 · 11th	(better) 0.14 · 3rd

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: FK Radnički Niš and FK Železničar Pančevo compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FK Radnički Niš	FK Železničar Pančevo
xGA / match	1.55 · 6th	(better) 1.11 · 3rd
Shots faced / match	13.9 · 9th	(better) 9.9 · 3rd
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.11 · 4th	0.11 · 5th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: FK Radnički Niš and FK Železničar Pančevo compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FK Radnički Niš	FK Železničar Pančevo
Last 6 xG / match	1.39	(better) 2.31
Last 6 xGA / match	1.93	(better) 0.75
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.53	(better) +1.56

Head to head

FK Radnički Niš 1 Draws 0 FK Železničar Pančevo 2

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

FK Radnički Niš to win

31.9% 3.14 —

Draw

30.0% 3.33 —

FK Železničar Pančevo to win

38.1% 2.62 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

79.9% 1.25 —

Under 1.5 goals

20.1% 4.97 —

Over 2.5 goals

52.9% 1.89 —

Under 2.5 goals

47.1% 2.13 —

Both teams to score

61.2% 1.63 —

Both teams not to score

38.8% 2.58 —

Team goals — FK Radnički Niš

FK Radnički Niš to score

75.6% 1.32 —

FK Radnički Niš not to score

24.4% 4.09 —

FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals

38.3% 2.61 —

FK Radnički Niš at most 1 goal

61.7% 1.62 —

Team goals — FK Železničar Pančevo

FK Železničar Pančevo to score

78.7% 1.27 —

FK Železničar Pančevo not to score

21.3% 4.70 —

FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

43.1% 2.32 —

FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal

56.9% 1.76 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Radnički Niš xG 1.39 xGA 1.93

L 2.20 created, 1.11 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
W 2.66 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
L 0.69 created, 3.66 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 1.44 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 0.26 created, 2.51 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
L 1.11 created, 1.09 conceded against FK Novi Pazar

FK Železničar Pančevo xG 2.31 xGA 0.75

L 0.66 created, 1.08 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 4.63 created, 0.11 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 2.89 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 3.42 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Zemun
W 1.27 created, 0.80 conceded against FK Partizan
W 0.99 created, 1.03 conceded against FK IMT Beograd

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Radnički Niš 1 Draws 0 FK Železničar Pančevo 2

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model leans FK Železničar Pančevo, but not by much

Team comparison

FK Radnički Niš attack → FK Železničar Pančevo defence

FK Železničar Pančevo attack → FK Radnički Niš defence

Head to head

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — FK Radnički Niš

Team goals — FK Železničar Pančevo

What the model doesn't know