FK Zemun 1:0 FK Mačva Šabac: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Zemun Home 0.66 xG

FK Mačva Šabac Away 0.60 xG

10 The chances were evenly matched

FK Zemun were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Zemun's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.66 projected (−1.00). FK Mačva Šabac produced 0.60 xG against 1.60 projected (−1.00).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Zemun: 38% What happened
Draw: 27%
FK Mačva Šabac: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Zemun 1.66 0.66 -1.00

FK Mačva Šabac 1.60 0.60 -1.00

FK Zemun produced 1.00 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Zemun FK Mačva Šabac

Shots: 10; 7
On target: 3; 1
Inside the box: 3; 5
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Zemun

0.88 xG created 3.61 xGA

L 1.52 created, 3.51 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 0.78 created, 4.89 conceded against FK Vojvodina
D 0.20 created, 3.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
D 0.60 created, 3.40 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
L 0.96 created, 3.42 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
L 1.22 created, 2.85 conceded against FK Čukarički

FK Mačva Šabac

0.88 xG created 2.28 xGA

D 0.92 created, 2.63 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
D 0.22 created, 3.02 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 0.11 created, 4.63 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
L 1.79 created, 1.22 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
D 1.15 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Čukarički
D 1.10 created, 1.06 conceded against OFK Beograd

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 qualified edges flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Zemun against FK Mačva Šabac before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.25	+47.2%	Lost
FK Zemun 2+ goals	2.75	+40.7%	Lost
FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals	2.63	+29.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+28.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.40	+22.2%	Lost
FK Zemun to score	1.36	+13.9%	Won
FK Mačva Šabac to score	1.36	+12.3%	Lost
FK Zemun to win	2.70	+2.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Zemun	37.8%	34.7%	+3.1 pp	2.65
Draw	27.1%	29.3%	−2.2 pp	3.69
FK Mačva Šabac	35.2%	36.0%	−0.9 pp	2.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Zemun to score	83.5%	68.7%	+14.7 pp	1.20
FK Zemun not to score	16.5%	31.3%	−14.7 pp	6.05
FK Mačva Šabac to score	82.4%	68.7%	+13.6 pp	1.21
FK Mačva Šabac not to score	17.6%	31.3%	−13.6 pp	5.67
Both teams to score	70.1%	50.0%	+20.1 pp	1.43
Both teams not to score	29.9%	50.0%	−20.1 pp	3.35
FK Zemun 2+ goals	51.2%	33.7%	+17.4 pp	1.95
FK Zemun at most 1 goal	48.8%	66.3%	−17.4 pp	2.05
FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals	49.2%	35.5%	+13.7 pp	2.03
FK Mačva Šabac at most 1 goal	50.8%	64.5%	−13.7 pp	1.97
Over 1.5 goals	87.3%	66.3%	+21.0 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	12.7%	33.7%	−21.0 pp	7.87
Over 2.5 goals	65.4%	41.8%	+23.7 pp	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	34.6%	58.2%	−23.7 pp	2.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Zemun sample: 10 matches
FK Mačva Šabac sample: 10 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.