Bukovyna Chernivtsi – FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih prediction, 25 October 2026 · Ukrainian Premier League

Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 12:00 Sun 25 October, 12:00

Kicked off · odds locked

Match preview · Ukrainian Premier League

Bukovyna Chernivtsi Home 12th in Ukrainian Premier League

2.19

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Away 15th in Ukrainian Premier League

1.54 Projected xG

Bukovyna Chernivtsi: 52%; Mkt 56% Market 56%; Fair 1.93 Fair odds 1.93
Draw: 24%; Mkt 23% Market 23%; Fair 4.24 Fair odds 4.24
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih: 25%; Mkt 21% Market 21%; Fair 4.06 Fair odds 4.06

No qualified edge

The largest edge is FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2+ goals at +23.6%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Kicked off. How this is decided →

Data coverage · thin

Bukovyna Chernivtsi 9/20
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 20/20

Model updated 25 October, 09:30
Top odds updated 25 October, 06:00

One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices, locked at kick-off.

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +23.6%

Model 47.1%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 2.12 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: +2.61%
Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +14.5%

Model 74.7%

Market 60.8%

Fair odds 1.34 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: -0.43%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +11.5%

Model 74.3%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.35 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: -0.89%
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to win Match result

Edge +3.3%

Model 24.6%

Market 21.4%

Fair odds 4.06 Bookmaker odds 4.20

Model skill: +7.20%

View all markets

Match result

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to win Match result

Edge +3.3%

Model 24.6%

Market 21.4%

Fair odds 4.06 Bookmaker odds 4.20

Model skill: +7.20%
Draw Match result

Edge -8.1%

Model 23.6%

Market 23.0%

Fair odds 4.24 Bookmaker odds 3.90

Model skill: -1.04%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win Match result

Edge -16.3%

Model 51.8%

Market 55.6%

Fair odds 1.93 Bookmaker odds 1.62

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to win

Model: 24.6%
Market, margin removed: 21.4%

Probability gap: +3.2 pp
Edge: +3.3%
Fair odds: 4.06
Market odds: 4.20 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 4.27
Bookmaker margin: 11.4%

Draw

Model: 23.6%
Market, margin removed: 23.0%

Probability gap: +0.5 pp
Edge: −8.1%
Fair odds: 4.24
Market odds: 3.90 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 4.46
Bookmaker margin: 11.4%

Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win

Model: 51.8%
Market, margin removed: 55.6%

Probability gap: −3.8 pp
Edge: −16.3%
Fair odds: 1.93
Market odds: 1.62 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.03
Bookmaker margin: 11.4%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +11.5%

Model 74.3%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.35 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +4.7%

Model 91.6%

Market 81.4%

Fair odds 1.09 Bookmaker odds 1.14

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -35.8%

Model 25.7%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 3.90 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -58.1%

Model 8.4%

Market 18.6%

Fair odds 11.93 Bookmaker odds 5.00

Model skill: -0.01%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +14.5%

Model 74.7%

Market 60.8%

Fair odds 1.34 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -40.0%

Model 25.3%

Market 39.2%

Fair odds 3.96 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +23.6%

Model 47.1%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 2.12 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: +2.61%
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to score Goals by team

Edge +10.8%

Model 81.3%

Market 68.7%

Fair odds 1.23 Bookmaker odds 1.36

Model skill: +2.56%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge 0.0%

Model 66.6%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.50 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score Goals by team

Edge -0.3%

Model 90.7%

Market 85.5%

Fair odds 1.10 Bookmaker odds 1.10

Model skill: +3.77%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -16.6%

Model 33.4%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 3.00 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -23.6%

Model 52.9%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.89 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: +2.61%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to score Goals by team

Edge -39.2%

Model 9.3%

Market 14.5%

Fair odds 10.70 Bookmaker odds 6.50

Model skill: +3.77%
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih not to score Goals by team

Edge -43.8%

Model 18.7%

Market 31.3%

Fair odds 5.33 Bookmaker odds 3.00

Model skill: +2.56%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

Got different odds? Check your price →

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bukovyna Chernivtsi xG 1.60 xGA 2.25

W 1.42 created, 2.62 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
D 2.18 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
D 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.82 created, 3.04 conceded against Metalist 1925
D 0.72 created, 2.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
L 2.14 created, 2.31 conceded against Kudrivka

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih xG 0.81 xGA 2.14

W 0.51 created, 1.25 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
D 0.64 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
L 1.84 created, 1.01 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
D 0.83 created, 2.47 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
L 0.44 created, 2.12 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
L 0.59 created, 3.80 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 3.73
Over 2.5 goals: 74%
Both teams to score: 75%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals: 67%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet: 19%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.

2:1: 9.8%
1:1: 9.3%
2:2: 8.1%

Why the model favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi

Bukovyna Chernivtsi's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.

Attack: Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi; 5th vs 16th; Bukovyna Chernivtsi attack v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih defence
Defence: Favours FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih; 15th vs 8th; Bukovyna Chernivtsi defence v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih attack
Recent xG form: Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi; -0.65 vs -1.33; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Bukovyna Chernivtsi and FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bukovyna Chernivtsi	FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
xG / match	(better) 1.77 · 6th	1.03 · 12th
xGA / match	(better) 2.11 · 14th	2.36 · 16th
xGD / match	(better) -0.34 · 8th	-1.33 · 16th
xPts / match	(better) 1.24 · 8th	0.63 · 16th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.65	-1.33

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Bukovyna Chernivtsi and FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bukovyna Chernivtsi	FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
xG / match	(better) 1.77 · 6th	1.03 · 12th
npxG / match	(better) 1.68	0.92
Shots / match	(better) 15.4 · 5th	13.6 · 8th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.11 · 7th	0.07 · 15th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Bukovyna Chernivtsi and FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bukovyna Chernivtsi	FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
xGA / match	(better) 2.11 · 14th	2.36 · 16th
Shots faced / match	(better) 17.1 · 14th	18.7 · 16th
npxGA / shot	0.12 · 13th	(better) 0.11 · 12th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Bukovyna Chernivtsi and FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bukovyna Chernivtsi	FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.60	0.81
Last 6 xGA / match	2.25	(better) 2.14
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.65	-1.33

Got a different price?

Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.

Close the calculator

How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win

51.8% 1.93 —

Draw

23.6% 4.24 —

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to win

24.6% 4.06 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

91.6% 1.09 —

Under 1.5 goals

8.4% 11.93 —

Over 2.5 goals

74.3% 1.35 —

Under 2.5 goals

25.7% 3.90 —

Both teams to score

74.7% 1.34 —

Both teams not to score

25.3% 3.96 —

Team goals — Bukovyna Chernivtsi

Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score

90.7% 1.10 —

Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to score

9.3% 10.70 —

Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals

66.6% 1.50 —

Bukovyna Chernivtsi at most 1 goal

33.4% 3.00 —

Team goals — FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to score

81.3% 1.23 —

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih not to score

18.7% 5.33 —

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2+ goals

47.1% 2.12 —

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih at most 1 goal

52.9% 1.89 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

· 1 warning

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bukovyna Chernivtsi xG 1.60 xGA 2.25

W 1.42 created, 2.62 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
D 2.18 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
D 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.82 created, 3.04 conceded against Metalist 1925
D 0.72 created, 2.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
L 2.14 created, 2.31 conceded against Kudrivka

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih xG 0.81 xGA 2.14

W 0.51 created, 1.25 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
D 0.64 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
L 1.84 created, 1.01 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
D 0.83 created, 2.47 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
L 0.44 created, 2.12 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
L 0.59 created, 3.80 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi

Team comparison

Bukovyna Chernivtsi attack → FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih defence

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih attack → Bukovyna Chernivtsi defence

Got a different price?

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Bukovyna Chernivtsi

Team goals — FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

What the model doesn't know