Monday, 02/11/2026 at 17:00
Full timeKarpaty Lviv 5:0 Kudrivka
Karpaty Lviv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Karpaty Lviv's attack: 2.80 xG against 1.81 projected (+0.99). Kudrivka produced 0.34 xG against 1.16 projected (−0.82).
The model against the result
- Karpaty Lviv
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Kudrivka
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Karpaty Lviv produced 0.99 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 8
- On target
- 8
- 2
- Inside the box
- 11
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.04
Recent form
1.83 xG created 1.04 xGA
- L 2.05 created, 1.58 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- W 2.39 created, 1.13 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- D 0.62 created, 1.31 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 0.88 created, 0.87 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 4.35 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- D 0.69 created, 0.83 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
1.63 xG created 2.42 xGA
- L 1.06 created, 5.21 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 1.11 created, 1.96 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 1.58 created, 1.51 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 2.25 created, 1.52 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 2.31 created, 2.14 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- L 1.44 created, 2.15 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kudrivka 2+ goals | 4.00 | +30.9% | Lost |
| Kudrivka to win | 5.75 | +24.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +21.0% | Lost |
| Kudrivka to score | 1.67 | +19.1% | Lost |
| Karpaty Lviv at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +15.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +15.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty Lviv | 51.5% | 64.3% | −12.8 pp | 1.94 |
| Draw | 26.9% | 20.0% | +6.9 pp | 3.72 |
| Kudrivka | 21.6% | 15.7% | +5.9 pp | 4.63 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty Lviv to score | 85.9% | 85.5% | +0.4 pp | 1.16 |
| Karpaty Lviv not to score | 14.1% | 14.5% | −0.4 pp | 7.09 |
| Kudrivka to score | 71.5% | 55.7% | +15.7 pp | 1.40 |
| Kudrivka not to score | 28.5% | 44.3% | −15.7 pp | 3.50 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 50.0% | +12.9 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.1% | 50.0% | −12.9 pp | 2.69 |
| Karpaty Lviv 2+ goals | 55.9% | 64.5% | −8.6 pp | 1.79 |
| Karpaty Lviv at most 1 goal | 44.1% | 35.5% | +8.6 pp | 2.27 |
| Kudrivka 2+ goals | 32.7% | 23.4% | +9.3 pp | 3.06 |
| Kudrivka at most 1 goal | 67.3% | 76.6% | −9.3 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | 78.3% | +5.1 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.5% | 21.7% | −5.1 pp | 6.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 59.0% | −0.3 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 41.0% | +0.3 pp | 2.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.