Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 12:00
2d 14h to kick-offKolos Kovalivka – FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
Model updated 7 October, 18:30 Best odds updated 7 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 40%
- Draw
- 30%
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 30%
| Kolos Kovalivka | Draw | FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.51 | 3.29 | 3.36 |
- Total goals
- 2.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Kolos Kovalivka
- Model
- 39.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 46.4%
- Probability gap
- −6.5 pp
- Edge
- −24.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.51
- Market odds
- 1.90 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.63
- Bookmaker margin
- 13.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.4%
- Probability gap
- +2.0 pp
- Edge
- −5.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.29
- Market odds
- 3.10 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.45
- Bookmaker margin
- 13.5%
-
FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- Model
- 29.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.2%
- Probability gap
- +4.5 pp
- Edge
- +4.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.36
- Market odds
- 3.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.53
- Bookmaker margin
- 13.5%
Outcomes with value
FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi to win
Model 29.7% vs. bookmaker 25.2%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Kolos Kovalivka
40% Kolos Kovalivka to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 12th
- Kolos Kovalivka attack v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 9th
- Kolos Kovalivka defence v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.53 vs +0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.23
- Kolos Kovalivka v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kolos Kovalivka | FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.34 · 10th | (better) 1.74 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.69 · 11th | (better) 1.17 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.34 · 10th | (better) +0.57 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.15 · 10th | (better) 1.72 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.53 | (better) +0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet
- 26%
- Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kolos Kovalivka
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 18:30
- Odds updated
- 9 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.