Friday, 06/11/2026 at 12:00
Full timeObolon Kyiv 1:1 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 34%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- Obolon Kyiv
- 34%
- Draw
- 34% What happened
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Recent form
0.67 xG created 2.01 xGA
- L 0.05 created, 2.54 conceded against Metalist 1925
- L 0.42 created, 4.19 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- D 1.75 created, 0.93 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- W 1.62 created, 0.62 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 0.09 created, 2.50 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 0.08 created, 1.25 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
0.67 xG created 1.49 xGA
- D 0.34 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- L 0.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- W 1.46 created, 1.36 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- L 0.66 created, 2.20 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- L 0.60 created, 2.64 conceded against Metalist 1925
- D 0.72 created, 0.70 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv not to score | 3.40 | +7.1% | Lost |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +6.6% | Won |
| Obolon Kyiv to win | 3.10 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Obolon Kyiv to score | 1.50 | +4.9% | Won |
| Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals | 3.40 | +3.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.00 | +2.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obolon Kyiv | 33.9% | 29.0% | +4.9 pp | 2.95 |
| Draw | 34.3% | 30.0% | +4.3 pp | 2.92 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | 31.8% | 40.9% | −9.2 pp | 3.15 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obolon Kyiv to score | 69.9% | 62.5% | +7.4 pp | 1.43 |
| Obolon Kyiv not to score | 30.1% | 37.5% | −7.4 pp | 3.33 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to score | 68.5% | 72.3% | −3.8 pp | 1.46 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv not to score | 31.5% | 27.7% | +3.8 pp | 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 46.3% | +3.6 pp | 2.00 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.1% | 53.7% | −3.6 pp | 2.00 |
| Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals | 30.5% | 27.7% | +2.8 pp | 3.28 |
| Obolon Kyiv at most 1 goal | 69.5% | 72.3% | −2.8 pp | 1.44 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals | 28.9% | 37.5% | −8.6 pp | 3.46 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal | 71.1% | 62.5% | +8.6 pp | 1.41 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | 66.3% | +2.0 pp | 1.47 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 33.7% | −2.0 pp | 3.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 40.3% | −3.0 pp | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 59.7% | +3.0 pp | 1.59 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 11 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.