Ilves 3:1 FC Lahti: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Veikkausliiga

Ilves Home 2.09 xG

FC Lahti Away 1.47 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Lahti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Ilves won 3–1. The biggest difference was Ilves's attack: 2.09 xG against 1.40 projected (+0.69).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Ilves: 30% What happened
Draw: 28%
FC Lahti: 42%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Ilves 1.40 2.09 +0.69

FC Lahti 1.67 1.47 -0.20

Ilves produced 0.69 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Ilves FC Lahti

Shots: 10; 17
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 6; 9
xG per shot: 0.21; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Ilves

1.36 xG created 1.45 xGA

W 1.61 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.27 created, 1.41 conceded against AC Oulu
W 2.04 created, 1.53 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 0.66 created, 1.18 conceded against VPS
L 0.72 created, 2.61 conceded against HJK
W 1.85 created, 0.58 conceded against FF Jaro

FC Lahti

1.73 xG created 1.59 xGA

L 1.38 created, 1.61 conceded against Ilves
W 1.89 created, 0.42 conceded against FF Jaro
D 1.78 created, 3.02 conceded against Inter Turku
L 0.71 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
W 2.54 created, 2.19 conceded against SJK
W 2.06 created, 1.15 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Ilves: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Ilves against FC Lahti before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Lahti to win	3.00	+26.7%	Lost
FC Lahti 2+ goals	2.20	+12.9%	Lost
Ilves at most 1 goal	1.80	+4.6%	Lost
FC Lahti to score	1.25	+4.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.53	+2.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ilves	29.8%	42.3%	−12.5 pp	3.35
Draw	27.9%	26.6%	+1.3 pp	3.58
FC Lahti	42.2%	31.0%	+11.2 pp	2.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ilves to score	78.1%	79.2%	−1.1 pp	1.28
Ilves not to score	21.9%	20.8%	+1.1 pp	4.57
FC Lahti to score	83.6%	75.0%	+8.6 pp	1.20
FC Lahti not to score	16.4%	25.0%	−8.6 pp	6.08
Both teams to score	66.8%	60.8%	+6.0 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.2%	39.2%	−6.0 pp	3.01
Ilves 2+ goals	41.9%	48.5%	−6.6 pp	2.39
Ilves at most 1 goal	58.1%	51.5%	+6.6 pp	1.72
FC Lahti 2+ goals	51.3%	42.3%	+9.0 pp	1.95
FC Lahti at most 1 goal	48.7%	57.7%	−9.0 pp	2.05
Over 1.5 goals	84.9%	81.4%	+3.5 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.1%	18.6%	−3.5 pp	6.63
Over 2.5 goals	61.0%	58.9%	+2.1 pp	1.64
Under 2.5 goals	39.0%	41.1%	−2.1 pp	2.57

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Ilves sample: 20 matches
FC Lahti sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.