TPS 0:3 Ilves: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

TPS Home 1.75 xG

Ilves Away 2.78 xG

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

TPS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Ilves won 3–0. The biggest difference was Ilves's attack: 2.78 xG against 1.52 projected (+1.26).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

TPS: 40%
Draw: 27%
Ilves: 33% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

TPS 1.67 1.75 +0.08

Ilves 1.52 2.78 +1.26

Ilves produced 1.26 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

TPS Ilves

Shots: 25; 13
On target: 9; 7
Inside the box: 12; 10
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.21

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

TPS

1.63 xG created 1.55 xGA

W 1.73 created, 2.08 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 2.01 created, 1.69 conceded against KuPS
W 2.26 created, 0.97 conceded against VPS
D 1.03 created, 2.27 conceded against Inter Turku
D 0.70 created, 1.36 conceded against SJK
L 2.03 created, 0.95 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

Ilves

1.44 xG created 1.46 xGA

L 1.27 created, 1.41 conceded against AC Oulu
W 2.04 created, 1.53 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 0.66 created, 1.18 conceded against VPS
L 0.72 created, 2.61 conceded against HJK
W 1.85 created, 0.58 conceded against FF Jaro
W 2.09 created, 1.47 conceded against FC Lahti

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

TPS: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on TPS against Ilves before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.57	+8.5%	Lost
TPS 2+ goals	2.10	+7.9%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+3.2%	Won
TPS to score	1.22	+2.2%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TPS	39.6%	36.6%	+3.0 pp	2.53
Draw	27.4%	26.1%	+1.3 pp	3.65
Ilves	33.0%	37.3%	−4.3 pp	3.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TPS to score	83.6%	76.6%	+7.0 pp	1.20
TPS not to score	16.4%	23.4%	−7.0 pp	6.10
Ilves to score	80.9%	76.6%	+4.3 pp	1.24
Ilves not to score	19.1%	23.4%	−4.3 pp	5.23
Both teams to score	69.1%	58.9%	+10.2 pp	1.45
Both teams not to score	30.9%	41.1%	−10.2 pp	3.23
TPS 2+ goals	51.4%	44.3%	+7.2 pp	1.95
TPS at most 1 goal	48.6%	55.7%	−7.2 pp	2.06
Ilves 2+ goals	46.5%	44.3%	+2.2 pp	2.15
Ilves at most 1 goal	53.5%	55.7%	−2.2 pp	1.87
Over 1.5 goals	86.5%	79.4%	+7.1 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.5%	20.6%	−7.1 pp	7.41
Over 2.5 goals	63.9%	57.7%	+6.2 pp	1.56
Under 2.5 goals	36.1%	42.3%	−6.2 pp	2.77

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
TPS sample: 20 matches
Ilves sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.