VPS 1:0 AC Oulu: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Tuesday, 08/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

VPS Home 1.06 xG

AC Oulu Away 2.41 xG

10 The result went against the chances

VPS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was AC Oulu's attack: 2.41 xG against 1.07 projected (+1.34). VPS produced 1.06 xG against 1.47 projected (−0.41).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

VPS: 45% What happened
Draw: 31%
AC Oulu: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

VPS 1.47 1.06 -0.41

AC Oulu 1.07 2.41 +1.34

AC Oulu produced 1.34 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

VPS AC Oulu

Shots: 6; 12
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 5; 9
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.20

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VPS

1.14 xG created 1.90 xGA

L 0.64 created, 2.21 conceded against HJK
L 1.08 created, 2.42 conceded against KuPS
L 0.99 created, 0.87 conceded against Inter Turku
W 1.98 created, 2.97 conceded against FF Jaro
L 0.97 created, 2.26 conceded against TPS
W 1.18 created, 0.66 conceded against Ilves

AC Oulu

1.17 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 1.19 created, 1.33 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 2.72 created, 2.55 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.41 created, 1.27 conceded against Ilves
L 0.22 created, 1.66 conceded against HJK
W 0.68 created, 0.93 conceded against FF Jaro
D 0.77 created, 0.37 conceded against SJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

VPS: 2 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on VPS against AC Oulu before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+1.5%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
VPS	44.7%	45.0%	−0.3 pp	2.24
Draw	30.6%	27.9%	+2.7 pp	3.27
AC Oulu	24.7%	27.1%	−2.4 pp	4.05

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.4%	52.0%	+4.4 pp	1.77
Both teams not to score	43.6%	48.0%	−4.4 pp	2.29
Over 1.5 goals	76.3%	72.3%	+3.9 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.7%	27.7%	−3.9 pp	4.22
Over 2.5 goals	47.6%	47.4%	+0.3 pp	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	52.4%	52.6%	−0.3 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
VPS sample: 20 matches
AC Oulu sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.