Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
1. FSV Mainz 05 – Hamburger SV
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 62%
- Draw
- 23%
- Hamburger SV
- 15%
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.62 | 4.39 | 6.50 |
- Total goals
- 3.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans 1. FSV Mainz 05
62% 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 14th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 18th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.18 – 1.10
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 v Hamburger SV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches | 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.47 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
- 30%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 1:1
- 10.8%
- 2:0
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.