Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Hamburger SV
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 69%
- Draw
- 20%
- Hamburger SV
- 11%
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Draw | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.45 | 4.96 | 9.19 |
- Total goals
- 3.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Bayer 04 Leverkusen
69% Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 14th
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 18th
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.86 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.36 – 0.95
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Hamburger SV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches | 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.86 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet
- 35%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals
- 71%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 9.9%
- 1:1
- 9.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.