Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
FC Bayern München – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Bayern München
- 52%
- Draw
- 25%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 23%
| FC Bayern München | Draw | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.94 | 3.99 | 4.30 |
- Total goals
- 3.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans FC Bayern München
52% FC Bayern München to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 3rd
- FC Bayern München attack v Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 2nd
- FC Bayern München defence v Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.86 vs +0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.01 – 1.36
- FC Bayern München v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Bayern München | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 3.14 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.57 · 1st from 4 matches | 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +2.57 · 1st from 4 matches | +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.76 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.86 | +0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- FC Bayern München clean sheet
- 23%
- FC Bayern München 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.1%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 2:2
- 7.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Bayern München
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.