Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:30
21d 17h to kick-offSC Freiburg – FC Bayern München
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SC Freiburg
- 29%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Bayern München
- 44%
| SC Freiburg | Draw | FC Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.46 | 3.70 | 2.27 |
- Total goals
- 3.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Bayern München
44% FC Bayern München to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 5th
- FC Bayern München attack v SC Freiburg defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 9th
- FC Bayern München defence v SC Freiburg attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.86 vs +0.64
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.43 – 1.76
- SC Freiburg v FC Bayern München
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.22 · 4th from 4 matches | (better) 3.14 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 0.91 · 2nd from 4 matches | (better) 0.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +1.31 · 3rd from 4 matches | (better) +2.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 2.26 · 3rd from 4 matches | (better) 2.76 · 1st from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.64 | (better) +1.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- FC Bayern München clean sheet
- 21%
- FC Bayern München 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.4%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 2:1
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Freiburg sample
- 20 matches
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SC Freiburg
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Bayern München
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.