Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 18:30
27d 18h to kick-offFC Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Bayern München
- 54%
- Draw
- 26%
- Borussia Dortmund
- 20%
| FC Bayern München | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.84 | 3.87 | 5.03 |
- Total goals
- 3.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Bayern München
54% FC Bayern München to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 1st
- FC Bayern München attack v Borussia Dortmund defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 8th
- FC Bayern München defence v Borussia Dortmund attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.86 vs +1.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.91 – 1.15
- FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 3.14 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.57 · 1st from 4 matches | 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +2.57 · 1st from 4 matches | +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.76 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.86 | +1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Bayern München clean sheet
- 29%
- FC Bayern München 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.5%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Bayern München
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.