Friday, 23/10/2026 at 20:30
19d 16h to kick-offVfB Stuttgart – Borussia M'gladbach
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- VfB Stuttgart
- 60%
- Draw
- 22%
- Borussia M'gladbach
- 18%
| VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.67 | 4.53 | 5.51 |
- Total goals
- 3.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans VfB Stuttgart
60% VfB Stuttgart to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 16th
- VfB Stuttgart attack v Borussia M'gladbach defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 12th
- VfB Stuttgart defence v Borussia M'gladbach attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.36 vs -1.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.32 – 1.32
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M'gladbach
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.89 · 8th from 4 matches | 1.72 · joint 10th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.75 · 17th from 4 matches | 2.92 · 18th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.86 · 15th from 4 matches | -1.20 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.01 · 11th from 4 matches | 0.83 · 15th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.36 | -1.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet
- 24%
- VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 27%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:1
- 9.3%
- 3:1
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia M'gladbach sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · VfB Stuttgart
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Borussia M'gladbach
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.