Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 13:30
37d 8h to kick-offBlackburn Rovers – Charlton Athletic
Model updated 22 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Blackburn Rovers
- 41%
- Draw
- 32%
- Charlton Athletic
- 27%
| Blackburn Rovers | Draw | Charlton Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.45 | 3.13 | 3.67 |
- Total goals
- 2.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Blackburn Rovers
41% Blackburn Rovers to win
- Attack
- 22nd vs 22nd
- Blackburn Rovers attack v Charlton Athletic defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 23rd
- Blackburn Rovers defence v Charlton Athletic attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.62 vs -0.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.08
- Blackburn Rovers v Charlton Athletic
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Blackburn Rovers | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.98 · 22nd | (better) 1.00 · 21st |
| xGA / match | 1.72 · 23rd | (better) 1.57 · 16th |
| xGD / match | -0.74 · 22nd | (better) -0.57 · 20th |
| xPts / match | 0.89 · 23rd | (better) 1.00 · 21st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.62 | (better) -0.29 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Blackburn Rovers clean sheet
- 31%
- Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:0
- 9.6%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Blackburn Rovers
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Charlton Athletic
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.