Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 20:45
Full timeBristol City 0:1 Blackburn Rovers
Bristol City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Blackburn Rovers won 1–0. The biggest difference was Blackburn Rovers's attack: 0.15 xG against 1.06 projected (−0.91). Bristol City produced 1.89 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.59).
Goals
- 38' Oladapo Afolayan Blackburn Rovers · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Bristol City
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- Blackburn Rovers
- 27% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Blackburn Rovers produced 0.91 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 3
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 14
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.33
- 0.05
- Set-piece xG
- 0.44
- 0.11
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.74 for Bristol City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.92 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Bristol City
- Blackburn Rovers
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.59 xG created 1.13 xGA
- W 1.78 created, 1.91 conceded against Preston North End
- W 1.06 created, 0.26 conceded against Burnley
- L 2.24 created, 1.71 conceded against Southampton
- L 1.53 created, 0.53 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.47 created, 0.57 conceded against Watford
- D 1.47 created, 1.78 conceded against Charlton Athletic
1.20 xG created 1.44 xGA
- D 0.24 created, 1.46 conceded against Lincoln City
- L 1.09 created, 2.19 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.62 created, 0.66 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
- D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 qualified edges flagged2 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.20 | +3.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +3.1% | Won |
| Bristol City at most 1 goal | 1.67 | +2.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 40.2% | 44.1% | −3.9 pp | 2.49 |
| Draw | 32.4% | 29.6% | +2.7 pp | 3.09 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 27.5% | 26.3% | +1.1 pp | 3.64 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City to score | 75.5% | 76.6% | −1.1 pp | 1.32 |
| Bristol City not to score | 24.5% | 23.4% | +1.1 pp | 4.09 |
| Blackburn Rovers to score | 68.2% | 64.5% | +3.7 pp | 1.47 |
| Blackburn Rovers not to score | 31.8% | 35.5% | −3.7 pp | 3.15 |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 51.5% | +2.0 pp | 1.87 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.5% | 48.5% | −2.0 pp | 2.15 |
| Bristol City 2+ goals | 38.3% | 44.3% | −6.0 pp | 2.61 |
| Bristol City at most 1 goal | 61.7% | 55.7% | +6.0 pp | 1.62 |
| Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals | 28.6% | 29.1% | −0.5 pp | 3.49 |
| Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal | 71.4% | 70.9% | +0.5 pp | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | 72.9% | −0.3 pp | 1.38 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 27.1% | +0.3 pp | 3.65 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 47.4% | −4.6 pp | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 52.6% | +4.6 pp | 1.75 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.