Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
33d 16h to kick-offBristol City – Wrexham
Model updated 22 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bristol City
- 36%
- Draw
- 34%
- Wrexham
- 29%
| Bristol City | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.76 | 2.92 | 3.39 |
- Total goals
- 2.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bristol City
36% Bristol City to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 7th
- Bristol City attack v Wrexham defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 21st
- Bristol City defence v Wrexham attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.53 vs -0.46
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.14 – 1.01
- Bristol City v Wrexham
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bristol City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.32 · 13th | 1.12 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.35 · 10th | (better) 1.18 · joint 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.03 · 11th | -0.05 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.44 · 11th | 1.40 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.53 | -0.46 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Bristol City clean sheet
- 34%
- Bristol City 2+ goals
- 32%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 11.8%
- 1:0
- 11.0%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Wrexham sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bristol City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Wrexham
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.