Wrexham 4:1 Preston North End: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Wrexham Home 1.86 xG · 17 shots

Preston North End Away 0.72 xG · 11 shots

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

Wrexham were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Wrexham's attack: 1.86 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.51). Preston North End produced 0.72 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.31).

Goals

31' Joe Worrall Wrexham · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
36' Alfie Devine Preston North End · 0.07 xG chance 1–1
42' Ben Whiteman Wrexham · 0.03 xG chance 2–1
59' Sam Smith Wrexham · 0.11 xG chance 3–1
63' Kieffer Moore Wrexham · 0.26 xG chance 4–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Wrexham: 42% What happened
Draw: 32%
Preston North End: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Wrexham 1.35 1.86 +0.51

Preston North End 1.03 0.72 -0.31

Wrexham produced 0.51 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Wrexham Preston North End

Shots: 17; 11
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 10; 7
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.82; 0.70
Set-piece xG: 1.07; 0.02
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.86 for Wrexham and 0.72 for Preston North End.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.62 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Wrexham
Preston North End
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wrexham

0.81 xG created 1.47 xGA

D 0.67 created, 0.74 conceded against Swansea City
D 1.35 created, 1.50 conceded against Burnley
L 0.44 created, 2.96 conceded against West Ham United
W 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Southampton
D 1.46 created, 0.60 conceded against Derby County
L 0.38 created, 0.94 conceded against West Bromwich Albion

Preston North End

1.32 xG created 1.51 xGA

W 2.19 created, 1.09 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 2.48 created, 1.44 conceded against Watford
L 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Lincoln City
D 1.50 created, 2.54 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Millwall
L 0.49 created, 2.24 conceded against Birmingham City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Wrexham: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 qualified edges flagged2 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Wrexham against Preston North End before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Preston North End to win	5.75	+49.2%	Lost
Preston North End 2+ goals	5.00	+38.6%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+28.0%	Lost
Wrexham not to score	5.50	+27.9%	Lost
Wrexham at most 1 goal	2.00	+20.2%	Lost
Preston North End to score	1.73	+16.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+8.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.00	+7.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wrexham	42.1%	60.3%	−18.3 pp	2.38
Draw	32.0%	23.4%	+8.6 pp	3.13
Preston North End	26.0%	16.3%	+9.7 pp	3.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wrexham to score	76.7%	82.8%	−6.1 pp	1.30
Wrexham not to score	23.3%	17.2%	+6.1 pp	4.30
Preston North End to score	67.4%	53.7%	+13.7 pp	1.48
Preston North End not to score	32.6%	46.3%	−13.7 pp	3.06
Both teams to score	53.6%	46.3%	+7.2 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.4%	53.7%	−7.2 pp	2.15
Wrexham 2+ goals	39.9%	53.7%	−13.8 pp	2.51
Wrexham at most 1 goal	60.1%	46.3%	+13.8 pp	1.66
Preston North End 2+ goals	27.7%	18.9%	+8.8 pp	3.61
Preston North End at most 1 goal	72.3%	81.1%	−8.8 pp	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	73.1%	74.5%	−1.4 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	26.9%	25.5%	+1.4 pp	3.71
Over 2.5 goals	43.3%	50.0%	−6.7 pp	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	56.7%	50.0%	+6.7 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Wrexham sample: 20 matches
Preston North End sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 59 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.