Wednesday, 04/11/2026 at 20:45
13d 23h to kick-offCardiff City – West Ham United
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Cardiff City
- 30%
- Draw
- 28%
- West Ham United
- 42%
| Cardiff City | Draw | West Ham United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.32 | 3.63 | 2.36 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans West Ham United
42% West Ham United to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 20th
- West Ham United attack v Cardiff City defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 4th
- West Ham United defence v Cardiff City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs +0.69
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.43 – 1.69
- Cardiff City v West Ham United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cardiff City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.88 · 3rd | (better) 2.16 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 19th | (better) 1.18 · joint 5th |
| xGD / match | +0.25 · 9th | (better) +0.99 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.51 · 9th | (better) 1.89 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.69 | (better) +0.92 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 21%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 1:2
- 10.3%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 11 matches
- West Ham United sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Cardiff City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · West Ham United
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.