Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 21:00
Full timeBirmingham City 4:0 Preston North End
Birmingham City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Preston North End's attack: 0.49 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.62). Birmingham City produced 2.24 xG against 1.73 projected (+0.51).
Goals
- 34' Liam Millar Birmingham City · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
- 45' August Priske Birmingham City · 0.47 xG chance 2–0
- 45' August Priske Birmingham City · 0.13 xG chance 3–0
- 76' Demarai Gray Birmingham City · 0.03 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Birmingham City
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Preston North End
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Preston North End produced 0.62 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 6
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 14
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.67
- 0.26
- Set-piece xG
- 0.49
- 0.23
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.21 for Birmingham City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.65 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Birmingham City
- Preston North End
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.92 xG created 1.47 xGA
- D 1.55 created, 1.02 conceded against Southampton
- D 1.39 created, 2.47 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 1.63 created, 1.01 conceded against Norwich City
- W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County
- D 1.23 created, 2.14 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.55 created, 1.05 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
1.55 xG created 1.43 xGA
- L 1.91 created, 1.78 conceded against Bristol City
- W 2.19 created, 1.09 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 2.48 created, 1.44 conceded against Watford
- L 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Lincoln City
- D 1.50 created, 2.54 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Millwall
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged0 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston North End to win | 6.50 | +39.9% | Lost |
| Preston North End 2+ goals | 4.33 | +32.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +25.1% | Lost |
| Preston North End to score | 1.67 | +16.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +11.5% | Lost |
| Birmingham City at most 1 goal | 2.38 | +11.0% | Lost |
| Birmingham City not to score | 7.00 | +8.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City | 50.7% | 64.7% | −14.0 pp | 1.97 |
| Draw | 27.8% | 20.9% | +6.9 pp | 3.60 |
| Preston North End | 21.5% | 14.4% | +7.1 pp | 4.65 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City to score | 84.5% | 86.4% | −1.9 pp | 1.18 |
| Birmingham City not to score | 15.5% | 13.6% | +1.9 pp | 6.45 |
| Preston North End to score | 70.1% | 55.7% | +14.3 pp | 1.43 |
| Preston North End not to score | 29.9% | 44.3% | −14.3 pp | 3.34 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 50.0% | +10.8 pp | 1.64 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.2% | 50.0% | −10.8 pp | 2.55 |
| Birmingham City 2+ goals | 53.2% | 60.8% | −7.5 pp | 1.88 |
| Birmingham City at most 1 goal | 46.8% | 39.2% | +7.5 pp | 2.14 |
| Preston North End 2+ goals | 30.7% | 21.7% | +9.0 pp | 3.26 |
| Preston North End at most 1 goal | 69.3% | 78.3% | −9.0 pp | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | 78.0% | +3.5 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.5% | 22.0% | −3.5 pp | 5.41 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 54.9% | +0.6 pp | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 45.1% | −0.6 pp | 2.25 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Birmingham City sample
- 20 matches
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.