Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 13:30
9d 16h to kick-offStoke City – Preston North End
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Stoke City
- 35%
- Draw
- 31%
- Preston North End
- 34%
| Stoke City | Draw | Preston North End | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.88 | 3.21 | 2.94 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Stoke City to win
- Attack
- 24th vs 23rd
- Stoke City attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- 21st vs 14th
- Stoke City defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.01 vs -0.57
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.28
- Stoke City v Preston North End
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Stoke City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.90 · 24th | (better) 1.24 · 16th |
| xGA / match | 1.71 · 22nd | (better) 1.46 · 14th |
| xGD / match | -0.81 · 24th | (better) -0.22 · 16th |
| xPts / match | 0.91 · 22nd | (better) 1.20 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.01 | (better) -0.57 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Stoke City clean sheet
- 25%
- Stoke City 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 9.4%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Stoke City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Preston North End
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.