Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
37d 17h to kick-offQueens Park Rangers – Sheffield United
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Queens Park Rangers
- 53%
- Draw
- 29%
- Sheffield United
- 18%
| Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.88 | 3.48 | 5.51 |
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Queens Park Rangers
53% Queens Park Rangers to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 19th
- Queens Park Rangers attack v Sheffield United defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 20th
- Queens Park Rangers defence v Sheffield United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.62 – 0.91
- Queens Park Rangers v Sheffield United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Queens Park Rangers | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.50 · 9th | 1.06 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.20 · 7th | 1.49 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.30 · 8th | -0.43 · 19th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.61 · 8th | 1.07 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.24 | -0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Queens Park Rangers clean sheet
- 37%
- Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 10.6%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Queens Park Rangers
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Sheffield United
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.