Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
2d 18h to kick-offQueens Park Rangers – Swansea City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- Queens Park Rangers
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- Swansea City
- 27%
| Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Swansea City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.48 | 3.08 | 3.67 |
- Total goals
- 2.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
Queens Park Rangers
- Model
- 40.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 38.7%
- Probability gap
- +1.6 pp
- Edge
- −3.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.48
- Market odds
- 2.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.60
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.1%
- Probability gap
- +4.3 pp
- Edge
- +7.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.08
- Market odds
- 3.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.24
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
-
Swansea City
- Model
- 27.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 33.2%
- Probability gap
- −5.9 pp
- Edge
- −23.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.67
- Market odds
- 2.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.86
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
Outcomes with an edge
Swansea City not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Swansea City at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Biggest edge
Swansea City not to score
Model 32.2% vs. bookmaker 29.1%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Queens Park Rangers
40% Queens Park Rangers to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 5th
- Queens Park Rangers attack v Swansea City defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 11th
- Queens Park Rangers defence v Swansea City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs +0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 1.05
- Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Queens Park Rangers | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.50 · 9th | (better) 1.60 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.20 · 7th | (better) 1.14 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.30 · 8th | (better) +0.46 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.61 · 8th | (better) 1.63 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.24 | (better) +0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Queens Park Rangers clean sheet
- 32%
- Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 1:0
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Queens Park Rangers
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Swansea City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 3 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.