Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
33d 19h to kick-offNorwich City – Queens Park Rangers
Model updated 22 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Norwich City
- 35%
- Draw
- 32%
- Queens Park Rangers
- 33%
| Norwich City | Draw | Queens Park Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.88 | 3.11 | 3.02 |
- Total goals
- 2.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Norwich City to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 6th
- Norwich City attack v Queens Park Rangers defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 8th
- Norwich City defence v Queens Park Rangers attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs +0.23
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.24 – 1.21
- Norwich City v Queens Park Rangers
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Norwich City | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.47 · 10th | (better) 1.50 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.60 · 17th | (better) 1.20 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.14 · 14th | (better) +0.30 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.26 · 14th | (better) 1.61 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) +0.24 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 27%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 2:1
- 9.4%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Norwich City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Queens Park Rangers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.