Wednesday, 14/10/2026 at 20:45
Full timeQueens Park Rangers 4:1 Derby County
Queens Park Rangers were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 4–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 18' Alfie Lloyd Queens Park Rangers · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 22' Nicolas Madsen (pen.) Queens Park Rangers · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
- 45' Harvey Vale Queens Park Rangers · 0.07 xG chance 3–0
- 68' Paul Smyth Queens Park Rangers · 0.04 xG chance 4–0
- 90' Lars-Jørgen Salvesen Derby County · 0.12 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- Queens Park Rangers
- 55% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Derby County
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 15
- On target
- 7
- 6
- Inside the box
- 6
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.72
- 0.73
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.11
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.73 for Queens Park Rangers and 0.85 for Derby County.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.38 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Queens Park Rangers
- Derby County
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.44 xG created 1.30 xGA
- W 2.09 created, 0.60 conceded against Cardiff City
- L 1.03 created, 2.53 conceded against Middlesbrough
- D 1.10 created, 0.48 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- D 0.62 created, 1.22 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- D 2.54 created, 1.50 conceded against Preston North End
- D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against West Ham United
0.90 xG created 1.68 xGA
- W 0.55 created, 0.84 conceded against Portsmouth
- L 0.11 created, 3.79 conceded against West Ham United
- L 1.27 created, 0.38 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
- D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged3 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.80 | +4.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +2.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +2.2% | Won |
| Derby County to score | 1.53 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers | 54.6% | 55.9% | −1.3 pp | 1.83 |
| Draw | 27.5% | 24.5% | +3.0 pp | 3.64 |
| Derby County | 17.9% | 19.6% | −1.7 pp | 5.57 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers to score | 84.8% | 82.8% | +2.0 pp | 1.18 |
| Queens Park Rangers not to score | 15.2% | 17.2% | −2.0 pp | 6.56 |
| Derby County to score | 65.3% | 60.8% | +4.5 pp | 1.53 |
| Derby County not to score | 34.7% | 39.2% | −4.5 pp | 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 51.5% | +5.5 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.0% | 48.5% | −5.5 pp | 2.32 |
| Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals | 53.7% | 53.7% | +0.0 pp | 1.86 |
| Queens Park Rangers at most 1 goal | 46.3% | 46.3% | −0.0 pp | 2.16 |
| Derby County 2+ goals | 25.1% | 25.0% | +0.1 pp | 3.98 |
| Derby County at most 1 goal | 74.9% | 75.0% | −0.1 pp | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | 74.5% | +5.0 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.6% | 25.5% | −5.0 pp | 4.86 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 50.0% | +2.3 pp | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 50.0% | −2.3 pp | 2.10 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.