Birmingham City 3:0 Queens Park Rangers: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Birmingham City Home 1.30 xG · 11 shots

Queens Park Rangers Away 1.15 xG · 12 shots

30 The chances were evenly matched

Birmingham City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

27' Liam Millar Birmingham City · 0.45 xG chance 1–0
49' Liam Millar Birmingham City · 0.12 xG chance 2–0
90' Demarai Gray Birmingham City · 0.16 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Birmingham City: 41% What happened
Draw: 31%
Queens Park Rangers: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Birmingham City 1.39 1.30 -0.09

Queens Park Rangers 1.15 1.15 +0.00

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers

Shots: 11; 12
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 9; 6
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.27; 0.35
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.77
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.26 for Birmingham City and 1.15 for Queens Park Rangers.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.40 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Birmingham City
Queens Park Rangers
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Birmingham City

2.03 xG created 1.38 xGA

D 1.39 created, 2.47 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.63 created, 1.01 conceded against Norwich City
W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County
D 1.23 created, 2.14 conceded against Middlesbrough
W 2.55 created, 1.05 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 2.24 created, 0.49 conceded against Preston North End

Queens Park Rangers

1.35 xG created 1.34 xGA

L 1.03 created, 2.53 conceded against Middlesbrough
D 1.10 created, 0.48 conceded against Charlton Athletic
D 0.62 created, 1.22 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
D 2.54 created, 1.50 conceded against Preston North End
D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.52 created, 0.85 conceded against Derby County

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Birmingham City: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 qualified edges flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Birmingham City against Queens Park Rangers before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.60	+12.0%	Lost
Birmingham City at most 1 goal	1.83	+7.0%	Lost
Queens Park Rangers to win	3.75	+5.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+4.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Birmingham City	40.7%	48.5%	−7.8 pp	2.46
Draw	31.1%	26.3%	+4.8 pp	3.21
Queens Park Rangers	28.2%	25.2%	+3.0 pp	3.55

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Birmingham City to score	77.9%	79.2%	−1.3 pp	1.28
Birmingham City not to score	22.1%	20.8%	+1.3 pp	4.53
Queens Park Rangers to score	71.0%	66.3%	+4.7 pp	1.41
Queens Park Rangers not to score	29.0%	33.7%	−4.7 pp	3.44
Both teams to score	57.1%	53.7%	+3.5 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.9%	46.3%	−3.5 pp	2.33
Birmingham City 2+ goals	41.6%	50.0%	−8.4 pp	2.40
Birmingham City at most 1 goal	58.4%	50.0%	+8.4 pp	1.71
Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals	32.1%	31.3%	+0.9 pp	3.11
Queens Park Rangers at most 1 goal	67.9%	68.7%	−0.9 pp	1.47
Over 1.5 goals	76.3%	76.2%	+0.1 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.7%	23.8%	−0.1 pp	4.22
Over 2.5 goals	47.6%	52.6%	−5.0 pp	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	52.4%	47.4%	+5.0 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Birmingham City sample: 20 matches
Queens Park Rangers sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 59 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.