Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 16:00
29d 17h to kick-offSheffield United – Watford
Model updated 22 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sheffield United
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Watford
- 28%
| Sheffield United | Draw | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.39 | 3.28 | 3.62 |
- Total goals
- 2.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sheffield United
42% Sheffield United to win
- Attack
- 20th vs 24th
- Sheffield United attack v Watford defence
- Defence
- 19th vs 19th
- Sheffield United defence v Watford attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs -0.84
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.45 – 1.16
- Sheffield United v Watford
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sheffield United | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.06 · 20th | (better) 1.13 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.49 · 15th | 1.88 · 24th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.43 · 19th | -0.75 · 23rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.07 · 19th | 0.88 · 24th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.37 | -0.84 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Sheffield United clean sheet
- 28%
- Sheffield United 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.5%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:0
- 8.3%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sheffield United
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Watford
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.